UKRAINE CRISIS: ENERGY IMPACT

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global operating environment this quarter and beyond. Brazil’s new administration is impacting investment risk and Petrobras strategy. The earthquakes in Turkey and Syria will have deep political and economic ramifications. Elsewhere, protests in Israel and Peru, Qatar’s changing LNG marketing strategy, South Africa’s energy crisis and Nigerian elections are important risk drivers. Key geopolitical risk factors include the war in Ukraine, the Saudi-Iranian normalization agreement, rising tensions in the Caucasus and limited Venezuelan sanctions relief. Meanwhile, the growing emphasis on energy security is one of the main drivers of transition risk.

Economic pressures are heightening aboveground risks, from political unrest and sovereign debt defaults to windfall taxes and protectionist measures.