RISK SERVICE

The EU and non-member Norway are at odds over how long oil and gas development should continue in the Arctic Region.

This year is expected to bring a rising tide of climate-related litigation challenging national and corporate net zero policies and goals perceived as misleading.

This Risk Outlook examines the investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment in 2023 and beyond. Growing oil theft and fears of political violence ahead of Nigerian elections as well as economic developments and warming regional relations in Turkey are highlighted. Norway’s frontier exploration limitations, Mozambican and Tanzanian LNG development and the volatile political climates in the UK and Peru are also covered. Meanwhile, Opec-plus dynamics and the impacts of Israel’s election on nascent Arab ties are, among others, major geopolitical risk factors. Meanwhile, COP27 and elections in Brazil are two of the most important transition risk drivers.

Saudi Arabia's exchange rate peg to the US dollar remains appropriate given the Opec heavyweight's current economic structure, according to IMF officials.

President Tokayev, who is regarded as pro-Western, will likely seek an out-of-court settlement, analysts say.

Fighting between the official Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues to rage. Energy Intelligence expects prolonged fighting as the most likely near-term scenario, as peace talks drag on and neither seems capable of winning outright. Key outside actors currently support diplomacy, but the odds of them becoming more involved increase as the conflict continues. Energy sector risks in Sudan and its neighbors are rising, while Red Sea trade flows may be threatened if fighting spreads to the coast or undermines the Horn of Africa. The conflict also threatens the fragile stability in neighboring producers in South Sudan, North Africa and the Sahel.