RISK SERVICE

Libya's NOC said oil production reached 1.226 million b/d on Sep. 2, with an additional 54,000 b/d of condensate.

The manner of Libya's appointment of new NOC chairman Farhat Bengdara raises questions over the company's independence and the country's upstream potential.

Fighting between the official Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues to rage. Energy Intelligence expects prolonged fighting as the most likely near-term scenario, as peace talks drag on and neither seems capable of winning outright. Key outside actors currently support diplomacy, but the odds of them becoming more involved increase as the conflict continues. Energy sector risks in Sudan and its neighbors are rising, while Red Sea trade flows may be threatened if fighting spreads to the coast or undermines the Horn of Africa. The conflict also threatens the fragile stability in neighboring producers in South Sudan, North Africa and the Sahel.

The Russian government's oil and gas revenues fell by about 12% in May versus April and were also down by 35% compared with May 2022.

Lawmakers' extraordinary action to expedite the 303-mile gas project means it could be in service by year’s end. But legal and political questions remain.

Israel’s dual crises are threatening political stability, the economy and recent foreign policy gains. Proposed judicial reforms – which opponents argue would undermine judicial independence – are fueling some of the largest protests in Israeli history. While the reforms do not present imminent upstream risks, this may change under a government less friendly to the gas industry. Tensions are also reaching the breaking point with Palestine, raising offshore security risks. The summer will be critical as reform compromise dialogue proceeds, and Israel enforces potentially inflammatory policies in Palestinian territory during Ramadan. These crises come as investor interest is rising, and Israel holds its open 4th bid round.