RISK SERVICE

Guyana's environmental agency approved a five-year permit for a fifth offshore oil project to be developed by the Exxon-led consortium.

New oil riches in Guyana and Suriname could be economically transformative, but monetization comes amid heightened climate concerns.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment in Q1’22 and beyond. As is often the case, political developments are driving the investment risk outlook, led by unrest in Kazakhstan and delayed elections in Libya. Elsewhere, Turkey’s economic woes and elections in Australia, Angola, Brazil, Colombia and the US, among others, will be key aboveground risk drivers in 2022. Tensions with Russia over Ukraine—including the possibility of military action—is the key geopolitical risk, while the US-Iran negotiations, China’s economy and a softening of Turkey’s assertive foreign policy will also be important factors. Meanwhile from a transition risk perspective, government efforts to reduce oil and gas emissions—through efforts like enhanced support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the increased use of low-carbon power to fuel upstream operations—are a welcome development.

Saudi Arabia's exchange rate peg to the US dollar remains appropriate given the Opec heavyweight's current economic structure, according to IMF officials.

President Tokayev, who is regarded as pro-Western, will likely seek an out-of-court settlement, analysts say.

Fighting between the official Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues to rage. Energy Intelligence expects prolonged fighting as the most likely near-term scenario, as peace talks drag on and neither seems capable of winning outright. Key outside actors currently support diplomacy, but the odds of them becoming more involved increase as the conflict continues. Energy sector risks in Sudan and its neighbors are rising, while Red Sea trade flows may be threatened if fighting spreads to the coast or undermines the Horn of Africa. The conflict also threatens the fragile stability in neighboring producers in South Sudan, North Africa and the Sahel.