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  • The fallout from the war in Ukraine is transforming Russia’s risk environment, elevating long-term investment, geopolitical and transition risks. While public support for President Vladimir Putin is holding steady, mounting war casualties and failure to achieve key military objectives will elevate risks associated with political instability, especially as the full brunt of economic pain sets in. Russia faces a deep contraction this year and next due to sanctions and capital controls. The Kremlin’s desire to maintain a stable ruble suggests the appetite for further inflationary fiscal support packages may prove limited. The energy sector also faces long-term challenges. Crude output levels may face permanent declines, while Russia will struggle to replace European gas markets with Asian ones. Geopolitically, the crisis is creating a prolonged nadir in Russian-Western relations. However, Moscow’s decade-long global diplomatic engagement proved prudent, with many Latin American, African and ostensible US Mideast allies striving to preserve neutrality and their ties to Russia. Russia’s dependence on Western and East Asian capital and critical tech imports may undercut hydrocarbon adaptation and long-term economic diversification efforts, complicating is ability to meet its nascent transition goals.
    Tue, May 24, 2022
Research Services
Energy Transition Research
  • The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region is seeing flourishing interest in clean hydrogen (both green and blue), backed by climate policy pressures and fed by hoped-for growth in future export markets. Europe’s major energy policy shift, seeking to cut Russian energy imports, could accelerate hydrogen demand growth, as could interest from major Asian economies. Mena hydrogen production is well placed to compete globally due to abundant natural gas and low-cost renewable power. Our Levelized Cost of Hydrogen analysis highlights the initial cost advantage for blue hydrogen production; this lead over green hydrogen may narrow quickly as costs of electrolyzers and renewable electricity fall. Planned Mena hydrogen projects are keeping up recent momentum, with more details emerging; however, most are still at an early stage. Hydrogen is a good fit for the evolving priorities of state NOCs, and western IOCs seeking regional partners, but established oil firms are not central players in most leading Mena projects.
    Mon, Apr 25, 2022
Global LNG Research
  • Long-term LNG supply contracting momentum continued into Q1’22. Foundation agreements supporting new projects featuring US and Chinese players were the notable trend, with significant implications for the LNG trade. Locking in supply is key for Chinese buyers, which face higher risk to Russian gas exposure relative to Japanese buyers as both groups navigate energy security requirements. While the world works to circumnavigate Russian energy, Egypt and Israel appear again as important gas supply sources for Europe. But even as Egyptian LNG exports recover, Israeli policy risk could be a headwind to a longer-term supply solution.
    Wed, Apr 20, 2022
Research Services 2
Risk Research
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to impact global transition risks through major energy policy shifts and rising geopolitical tensions. This Transition Risk Outlook also examines the impact of major commodity price increases in oil, gas and many key low-carbon energy inputs. These changes may lead some producers to de-prioritize energy transition goals in the short term, but it will also provide more breathing space and resources to invest in energy transition initiatives as well as economic diversification efforts. Private oil and gas investment may also grow, which increasingly is bringing new low-carbon activity as well. We have also added five new producers—Congo (Brazzaville), Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Suriname—to the Transition Risk Index. Adding these producers rounds out coverage of Opec and helps expand the index’s coverage geographically and by producer type.
    Thu, Apr 28, 2022
Latest Research2
Competitive Intelligence Research
  • The Russia-Ukrainian war has greatly impacted near-term oil and gas prices, while also elevating supply concerns across many European nations. Energy security is back in focus and we continue to watch for government policy developments that will encourage new exploration and resource development. Upstream capex growth is also on our radar. Unlocking upstream capital budgets, including exploration spend, will need to align with investor demands for capital discipline and greater low-carbon spending, despite a positive earnings season. Exploration activity, for now, is limited to the handful of anticipated 2022 campaigns in key advantaged plays.
    Mon, May 9, 2022
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