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  • Long-term LNG supply contracting momentum continued into Q1’22. Foundation agreements supporting new projects featuring US and Chinese players were the notable trend, with significant implications for the LNG trade. Locking in supply is key for Chinese buyers, which face higher risk to Russian gas exposure relative to Japanese buyers as both groups navigate energy security requirements. While the world works to circumnavigate Russian energy, Egypt and Israel appear again as important gas supply sources for Europe. But even as Egyptian LNG exports recover, Israeli policy risk could be a headwind to a longer-term supply solution.
    Wed, Apr 20, 2022
  • The Russia-Ukraine conflict is now driving a realignment of the global gas ecosystem. Russian gas replacement will take some time, while initiatives to reduce gas use altogether could mitigate that need. Both spot and term LNG prices will remain high and volatile, with several potentially disruptive factors poised to push both Dutch TTF and Asian spot prices out of their $25-$35/MMBtu range. But upside for TTF may be needed to ensure higher European LNG deliveries continue. Risks to Russian gas flows and proactive efforts to find alternatives are further elevating project development momentum, with the US well positioned to help fill the gap.
    Thu, Mar 31, 2022
  • Forecast data for LNG Market Evolution Quarterly, Q1'22
    Thu, Mar 31, 2022
  • This month, Critical Trends focuses on Russia-Ukraine conflict implications for LNG. The invasion, swift Western reaction and potential for further disruption to both oil and gas trade will provide additional LNG pricing support with few immediate solutions. The IEA and European Commission have offered plans to reduce dependency on Russian gas, with several ideas feasible this year. TotalEnergies has the greatest LNG exposure to Russia among foreign partners but should be able to navigate the risks. The conflict should also add to momentum for new project developments that was building in 2021, if lingering hurdles can be navigated. Finally, Indian buyers’ positioning for deepening LNG partnerships in Russia may now be imperiled.
    Mon, Mar 14, 2022
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a defining moment with far-reaching implications, stretching well beyond the conflict zone. Fierce Ukrainian resistance is increasing the risks of an extended war. The odds of the conflict expanding are currently low but rising. For Russia, the consequences are already painful—including tough Western sanctions, diplomatic isolation, a free-falling ruble and rising military costs—and will only grow as the conflict drags on. A resolution is hard to envision as the gap between the two sides grows, and the wider escalatory cycle between Russia and the West intensifies. Geopolitically, the conflict will revive Nato, while at least temporarily slowing the US pivot to Asia. The economic fallout threatens to heighten global risks. For the energy sector, the conflict is raising prices, even without direct supply interruptions or broad energy sector sanctions, but these remain possible. The crisis has prompted a deep rethink of European energy policy, while IOCs are rushing to exit from longstanding investments in Russian industry.
    Thu, Mar 3, 2022
  • European gas supply and energy security are front-and-center as Russia-Ukraine tensions mount during the winter of a long, tight market stretch. Notwithstanding potential for gas supply disruption related to hostilities, we reconsider Russia’s upstream, our long-term assumptions and opportunity to fill any emerging supply gap. We also consider the possibility of crisis de-escalation and the impact on gas prices. LNG shipments have been responsive to price signals, and we examine both the depth of flexibility and the limits of government diversion requests. With the tight LNG market bringing us back to supply prospects, we turn to Adnoc’s liquefaction plans and their place in the LNG competitive landscape.
    Wed, Feb 16, 2022
  • Several key LNG market developments are on our radar this year. We do not see market volatility driving dramatic changes to our long-term demand assumptions. LNG supply agreements provide an important signpost, particularly in growth markets. With supply, ventures under construction and several poised for advancement paint a long-term supply picture. But the market will still need to contend with ongoing challenges with several operating ventures. We also expect LNG carbon mitigation strategies to advance. Perhaps 2022 will be the year when LNG supply agreements, new project developments and carbon neutrality become more tightly linked.
    Fri, Jan 14, 2022
  • Global gas price upside is par for the course these days, and Europe remains a key driver—for now. The Asian winter market and LNG supply challenges add to a volatile mix of inputs—and the potential for Asian market mayhem persists. The oil market remains critical to trade dynamics for those heavily exposed to spot LNG. The momentum for 2022 dealmaking remains strong under these circumstances. Long-term agreements will be a key signpost for LNG market capacity growth and pricing volatility later this decade. The types of players committing to LNG supply could also illuminate the pace of energy transition.
    Mon, Dec 20, 2021
  • Forecast data for LNG Market Evolution Quarterly, Q4'21
    Mon, Dec 20, 2021
  • Investment and supply have been an important component of LNG industry conversation in 2021. So, we turn to Tanzania, where enthusiasm for project development has returned. But we believe project partners need to navigate several hurdles—and perhaps internalize some lessons from Mozambique’s experience—for this venture to reach completion. On the demand side, we look at diverging buyer strategies. Jera’s recent acquisitions, along with lapsing supply agreements, provide important insights into maturing buyers, along with seller opportunities. Indian buyers could also pursue acquisitions, but existing agreements better illuminate their current approach.
    Wed, Dec 15, 2021
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