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  • The strategic divide between differing corporate responses to the energy transition is slow to narrow, even as firms across the industry spectrum roll out new low-carbon plans, targets and spending. The latest results of our Transition Strategy Index – expanded to cover 29 major oil and gas companies – show how companies are taking action to confront transition risks but remain far apart in their approaches. The Index analyses and assesses how companies are positioning for the energy transition – and which are most exposed to the challenges of accelerating global industry change. Attention is turning from formation of strategies to implementation efforts, with rising scrutiny of both European Majors’ bold transformational plans, and of other firms following more modest adaptation pathways. Companies’ financial resilience, eroded by Covid-19, is set to recover, and will help companies deliver on plans.
    Wed, Jan 26, 2022
  • The global energy transition is gaining pace, as shown by our updated scenarios analysis – with far-reaching industry implications. Our core, Accelerate case, first set out in Q4’20, has been amply borne out by events over the last 12 months. COP26 in Glasgow on balance confirmed momentum for a faster transition. We continue to see the transition gather pace this decade as policy pressures grow and green technologies become more competitive. We explore alternative pathways, and have added a Net-Zero scenario, requiring radical, immediate change – but unlikely to play out. Our analysis also shows how the energy transition, requiring deep changes to the global energy system, will likely be an uneven and bumpy process. Finally, we identify critical factors to watch in 2022, which will offer clues to the emerging shape and pace of the transition.
    Mon, Dec 6, 2021
  • This year’s announced low-carbon spending through Q3’21 reached $39 billion – already $10 billion above full 2020 levels. The unprecedented $22 billion of investments announced in Q1’21 certainly provides a boost to the annual total. But Q3’21 announced investment levels are in line with the rapid growth trend of recent years – and at $9.7 billion, were up 28% from Q2’21. European Majors, especially TotalEnergies, Shell, BP and Equinor, again lead investments by value, but the peer group’s share of the total fell slightly from recent quarters to average 91% through Q3’21. A rebound in announcements by NOCs and US Majors is driving this shift, although Global Independents have stayed quiet. Renewable power remains the top spending category, but its share dropped from 94% in Q1’21 to 67% in Q3’21 as investments in low-carbon fuels, e-mobility and CCS have picked up. We expect the composition of investments to evolve in favor of low-carbon fuels, particularly hydrogen, and CCS in 2022 and beyond, as more firms seek to implement more varied transition plans. To better capture this range of approaches, we have added six new companies this quarter, with a focus on Adnoc, PTT and Wintershall Dea in this report.
    Wed, Nov 3, 2021
  • Our latest ESG Climate Risk Benchmark report shows that companies are continuing to step up action, but that investor demands are also escalating. We have adjusted our methodology in response to evolving investor priorities, which are increasingly focused on corporate commitments to long-term and intermediate emissions-reduction goals. Even with these adjustments in our methodology, general peer group trends are largely unchanged from the last benchmark report. European firms dominate the top tier, while less engaged NOCs are concentrated toward the bottom of the ranking. Independents and US majors fill out the middle tier. Yet some companies made marked improvements. Ecopetrol, for example, jumped eight spots to 14th of 27, after announcing net-zero Scopes 1 and 2 emissions goals. Indeed, a growing number of companies have set net-zero Scopes 1 and 2 targets – and we expect more announcements to follow in 2021-22, from US majors, independents and some NOCs.
    Mon, Aug 30, 2021
  • Data accompanying the July 2021 Low-Carbon Investment Tracker quarterly report.
    Wed, Jul 21, 2021
  • Low-carbon spending announced in H1’21 hit $30.1 billion – already exceeding 2020 investments by value – thanks to an unprecedented surge in Q1’21 and sustained robust spending in Q2. European majors continued to drive activity, led by Total and BP. Renewable power remains dominant, making up 88% of total deals so far this year. But Q2’21 activity was more diversified toward low-carbon fuels, as interest in hydrogen continues to grow. In this Low-Carbon Investment Tracker report, we include a focus section on CCS, which is also gaining momentum. While seen as critical for many oil and gas firms’ emissions goals, CCS is not yet commercial at scale and still faces challenges. European players with advanced transition strategies lead overall in CCS, but growing ambitions of US majors and NOCs pursuing adaptation strategies point to a broader acceleration of activity in 2021-22.
    Fri, Jul 16, 2021
  • Global light-duty electric vehicle (EV) sales grew by 43% last year despite Covid-19. Since 2014, EV fleet growth has averaged 56% per year. Overall trends continue to suggest that EVs are on track to hit key inflection points by the mid-2020s, further accelerating EV sales. Yet the potential trajectories could vary widely. This report lays out three EV scenarios to 2040 and models the impact on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales and oil demand. In our Core case, EV sales hit 41% of car sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040 in China, Europe and the US combined. In our Low case, EV sales reach just 46% market share by 2040 versus our High case of 96%. The oil demand implications are significant and will start this decade. Across these scenarios, we expect the demand EVs displace against a business-as-usual baseline – which holds total EVs and ICE economy constant at 2020 levels – to reach 1.2 million-2.8 million b/d in 2030 and 3.2 million-10.5 million b/d in 2040. In our Core case, we see overall oil demand peaking in 2028. While this impact is notable, we still assume oil demand to be only 1.8 million b/d below 2020 levels by 2040 in our Core case.
    Wed, Jun 16, 2021
  • Global light-duty electric vehicle (EV) sales grew by 43% last year despite Covid-19. Since 2014, EV fleet growth has averaged 56% per year. Overall trends continue to suggest that EVs are on track to hit key inflection points by the mid-2020s, further accelerating EV sales. Yet the potential trajectories could vary widely. This report lays out three EV scenarios to 2040 and models the impact on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales and oil demand. In our Core case, EV sales hit 41% of car sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040 in China, Europe and the US combined. In our Low case, EV sales reach just 46% market share by 2040 versus our High case of 96%. The oil demand implications are significant and will start this decade. Across these scenarios, we expect the demand EVs displace against a business-as-usual baseline – which holds total EVs and ICE economy constant at 2020 levels – to reach 1.2 million-2.8 million b/d in 2030 and 3.2 million-10.5 million b/d in 2040. In our Core case, we see overall oil demand peaking in 2028. While this impact is notable, we still assume oil demand to be only 1.8 million b/d below 2020 levels by 2040 in our Core case.
    Wed, Jun 16, 2021
  • Data accompanying the April 2021 Low-Carbon Investment Tracker quarterly report.
    Mon, May 3, 2021
  • Low-carbon spending is rapidly gaining pace as announced investments hit $20 billion in Q1’21 alone. European firms have long driven overall investment, but the concentration of activity among them in Q1 – at nearly 100% by value – is still striking. Highlighting Europeans’ strategic focus and need for scale, renewable power generation made up 90% of total announced investments by value. Outside of renewable power, investments in low-carbon fuels accounted for a record 28% of total by count – supported by growing interest in hydrogen. Indeed, early moves in both hydrogen and CCS suggest there could be a pick-up in activity in these areas later this year and beyond – with key NOCs and US firms showing signs that hydrogen and CCS are rising in priority. This quarter’s report also focuses on companies’ specialized subsidiaries, which in several cases are playing an increasingly important role in their low-carbon investment strategies.
    Wed, Apr 28, 2021
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