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  • Our latest ESG Climate Risk Benchmark report shows that companies are continuing to step up action, but that investor demands are also escalating. We have adjusted our methodology in response to evolving investor priorities, which are increasingly focused on corporate commitments to long-term and intermediate emissions-reduction goals. Even with these adjustments in our methodology, general peer group trends are largely unchanged from the last benchmark report. European firms dominate the top tier, while less engaged NOCs are concentrated toward the bottom of the ranking. Independents and US majors fill out the middle tier. Yet some companies made marked improvements. Ecopetrol, for example, jumped eight spots to 14th of 27, after announcing net-zero Scopes 1 and 2 emissions goals. Indeed, a growing number of companies have set net-zero Scopes 1 and 2 targets – and we expect more announcements to follow in 2021-22, from US majors, independents and some NOCs.
    Mon, Aug 30, 2021
  • Data accompanying the July 2021 Low-Carbon Investment Tracker quarterly report.
    Wed, Jul 21, 2021
  • Low-carbon spending announced in H1’21 hit $30.1 billion – already exceeding 2020 investments by value – thanks to an unprecedented surge in Q1’21 and sustained robust spending in Q2. European majors continued to drive activity, led by Total and BP. Renewable power remains dominant, making up 88% of total deals so far this year. But Q2’21 activity was more diversified toward low-carbon fuels, as interest in hydrogen continues to grow. In this Low-Carbon Investment Tracker report, we include a focus section on CCS, which is also gaining momentum. While seen as critical for many oil and gas firms’ emissions goals, CCS is not yet commercial at scale and still faces challenges. European players with advanced transition strategies lead overall in CCS, but growing ambitions of US majors and NOCs pursuing adaptation strategies point to a broader acceleration of activity in 2021-22.
    Fri, Jul 16, 2021
  • Global light-duty electric vehicle (EV) sales grew by 43% last year despite Covid-19. Since 2014, EV fleet growth has averaged 56% per year. Overall trends continue to suggest that EVs are on track to hit key inflection points by the mid-2020s, further accelerating EV sales. Yet the potential trajectories could vary widely. This report lays out three EV scenarios to 2040 and models the impact on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales and oil demand. In our Core case, EV sales hit 41% of car sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040 in China, Europe and the US combined. In our Low case, EV sales reach just 46% market share by 2040 versus our High case of 96%. The oil demand implications are significant and will start this decade. Across these scenarios, we expect the demand EVs displace against a business-as-usual baseline – which holds total EVs and ICE economy constant at 2020 levels – to reach 1.2 million-2.8 million b/d in 2030 and 3.2 million-10.5 million b/d in 2040. In our Core case, we see overall oil demand peaking in 2028. While this impact is notable, we still assume oil demand to be only 1.8 million b/d below 2020 levels by 2040 in our Core case.
    Wed, Jun 16, 2021
  • Global light-duty electric vehicle (EV) sales grew by 43% last year despite Covid-19. Since 2014, EV fleet growth has averaged 56% per year. Overall trends continue to suggest that EVs are on track to hit key inflection points by the mid-2020s, further accelerating EV sales. Yet the potential trajectories could vary widely. This report lays out three EV scenarios to 2040 and models the impact on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales and oil demand. In our Core case, EV sales hit 41% of car sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040 in China, Europe and the US combined. In our Low case, EV sales reach just 46% market share by 2040 versus our High case of 96%. The oil demand implications are significant and will start this decade. Across these scenarios, we expect the demand EVs displace against a business-as-usual baseline – which holds total EVs and ICE economy constant at 2020 levels – to reach 1.2 million-2.8 million b/d in 2030 and 3.2 million-10.5 million b/d in 2040. In our Core case, we see overall oil demand peaking in 2028. While this impact is notable, we still assume oil demand to be only 1.8 million b/d below 2020 levels by 2040 in our Core case.
    Wed, Jun 16, 2021
  • Data accompanying the April 2021 Low-Carbon Investment Tracker quarterly report.
    Mon, May 3, 2021
  • Low-carbon spending is rapidly gaining pace as announced investments hit $20 billion in Q1’21 alone. European firms have long driven overall investment, but the concentration of activity among them in Q1 – at nearly 100% by value – is still striking. Highlighting Europeans’ strategic focus and need for scale, renewable power generation made up 90% of total announced investments by value. Outside of renewable power, investments in low-carbon fuels accounted for a record 28% of total by count – supported by growing interest in hydrogen. Indeed, early moves in both hydrogen and CCS suggest there could be a pick-up in activity in these areas later this year and beyond – with key NOCs and US firms showing signs that hydrogen and CCS are rising in priority. This quarter’s report also focuses on companies’ specialized subsidiaries, which in several cases are playing an increasingly important role in their low-carbon investment strategies.
    Wed, Apr 28, 2021
  • Corporate responses to the energy transition have taken off in the past year, as firms across peer groups seek to strengthen their long-term resilience, set emissions targets and lay out transition strategies. Yet pressures – from investors and other stakeholders – continue to mount. The pandemic downturn has shaken company finances and sown further doubts about the sustainability of their existing business models. The latest results of our pioneering Vulnerability Index – now covering 26 major oil and gas companies – show how companies are starting to confront existential transition risks but also that they have a long way to go. Our analysis helps identify differing strategic priorities for peer groups and individual companies. The most vulnerable companies must first focus on bolstering resilience, while leading European majors have a broader range of priorities tied to implementation. Most resilient NOCs must not only diversify within the oil and gas value chain but also connect these efforts to clearer overall adaptation strategies.
    Mon, Apr 5, 2021
  • Interest in hydrogen is growing – and this time, it is more than just hype. The opportunity set for the oil and gas industry is expanding given the numerous points of intersection between the hydrogen and hydrocarbon value chains. Yet hydrogen’s economics must improve for it to gain serious traction. Blue hydrogen starts from a strong position versus green on costs, but green may see the biggest cost declines. In light of the challenging near-term economics, policy incentives will remain critical for stimulating initial investment, developing cost-competitive supply, and creating future demand. Governments worldwide are stepping up support, led by Asia-Pacific and Europe, and oil and gas majors are ramping up investments partly thanks to these incentives. They are starting with pilot projects for own use – with refining offering notable near-term potential – but aim to scale up ambitions this decade as the complex hydrogen value chain develops.
    Tue, Mar 23, 2021
  • Data accompanying the January 2021 Low-Carbon Investment Tracker quarterly report.
    Sun, Jan 24, 2021
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