March 17, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures crashed through a $2.40 floor Friday, falling 17.6¢ to settle at $2.338 per million Btu, as concerns about abundant supply weighed on the market despite unseasonably cold weather. The contract has fallen 67.1¢ since hitting $3 just two weeks ago. While some Haynesville Shale producers have announced they would drop rigs in response to low prices, and some Appalachian producers have said they would aim to keep production steady in 2023 with flexibility to slow production if prices fall far enough, an upstream response isn't evident in the US rig count. "Producers could eventually shut-in wells later this year if gas prices stay low,” East Daley analysts wrote. “In 2020, we saw EQT respond to poor spot pricing by shutting in one-third of its production when Dominion South [now Eastern Gas South] prices fell below $1.40/MMBtu. On the other hand, Antero Resources claimed resilience to low prices in Appalachia, given a strong portfolio of firm transport (FT) on pipelines out of the basin and low break-even economics for its acreage. EQT noted that while some of its peers were slimming their FT capacity, EQT was expanding its own.” But Appalachian spot gas prices are well above that level now.

The 12-month strip dropped 14.8¢ to $3.088; the 2024 strip declined 9.5¢ to $3.588 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Tenn Gas Zone 6 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.34 to $3.92. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 4¢ at $2.41. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 12¢ to average $2.31, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 84¢ to average $3.19. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 29¢ to average $1.13. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 34¢ to $4.11, SoCal Citygate advanced $1.03 to average $8.14 and Northwest Sumas lost 51¢ to average $2.01. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 2¢ to $2.11 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US rig count climbed eight to 754 last week, up 91 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs climbed nine to 162, up 25 from a year ago, while oil rigs fell one to 589, up 65 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 34 rigs to 350, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 15 to 70. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up one at 67 (Rig count).

* * *

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) this week launched a multi-pronged investigation into the extraordinary spikes in natural gas prices this winter with an aim of heading off a recurrence. “The initiation of this proceeding will allow us to deeply probe the causes and impacts of these harmful natural gas price spikes and explore mitigations against such price volatility in the future,” said CPUC President Alice Reynolds. “This is a critical step to protecting consumers and increasing transparency.” The CPUC said it will explore the impact of the price spikes on gas and electricity prices and customer bills, and the potential threats to gas and power reliability and price volatility this coming summer and beyond. The move comes weeks after California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and other elected officials urged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to investigate whether market manipulation, anticompetitive behavior, or other anomalies contributed to the high gas prices across much of the West this winter.

* * *

Price notice:

Due to revisions by data providers, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing as follows:

For the Mar. 14, 2023 trade day at SoCal Border, the revised pricing is: Low: $3.25; High: $6.10; Average: $4.76; Volume: 263,231; Deals: 45.

For the Mar. 15, 2023 trade day:

At Algonquin, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.45; High: $2.70; Average: $2.50; Volume: 92,744; Deals: 17.

At Centerpoint East, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.00; High: $2.15; Average: $2.08; Volume: 22,000; Deals: 2.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinPG&E SouthIroquois Zone 2SoCal CitygateTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso PermianNW SumasWaha HubTranswes E of Thoreau-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinPG&E SouthIroquois Zone 2SoCal CitygateTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso PermianNW SumasWaha HubTranswes E of Thoreau
Note: Mar 17' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (25), down (47).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 17, 2023 / Flow Dates: Mar. 18-20, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 17, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.2Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 16 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Mar 17 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 17 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 16 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
193819642558248823642286232121262122Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13Mar 14Mar 15Mar 16Mar 17(MMcf/d)05001000150020002500Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13Mar 14Mar 15Mar 16Mar 17NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
10 Mar 2311 Mar 2312 Mar 2313 Mar 2314 Mar 2315 Mar 2316 Mar 23800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600010 Mar 2311 Mar 2312 Mar 2313 Mar 2314 Mar 2315 Mar 2316 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)10001100120013001400150016001700180019002000 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)1000150020002500300035004000450050005500 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Mar(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
25927827629225023624627811 March12 March13 March14 March15 March16 March17 March18 March05010015020025030011 March12 March13 March14 March15 March16 March17 March18 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 6°
Orlando -1°
Boston 6°
Washington 8°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis -21°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 0°
Denver -7°
Austin -15°
Atlanta -4°
Southeast US
New York 6°
Orlando -1°
Boston 6°
Washington 8°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis -21°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 0°
Denver -7°
Austin -15°
Atlanta -4°

Copyright Notice

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