March 16, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures climbed 7.5¢ Thursday to $2.514 per million Btu. Although the market initially sold off in response to a storage report showing a withdrawal that was 4 billion cubic feet below expectations, prices quickly recovered toward the day's settlement. Looking ahead, it's likely elevated storage balances exiting the winter heating season will keep pressure on prices. "It seems the market may have a hard time getting down to a 1.8 [trillion cubic foot] carry out, even with some cold," Gelber & Associates analysts said. "With around three weeks left in the withdrawal season ..., the remaining withdrawals will have to average around 60 Bcf, much higher than expectations."

The 12-month strip increased 5.7¢ to $3.236; the 2024 strip rose 5.6¢ to $3.683 (Futures contracts).

* * *

NW Rockies saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $2.32 to $3.44. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 2¢ at $2.45. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 9¢ to average $2.19, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 15¢ to average $2.35. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 13¢ to average $1.42. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $1.49 to $4.45, SoCal Citygate declined 38¢ to average $7.11 and Northwest Sumas lost 86¢ to average $2.52. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 8¢ to $2.13 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 58 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ended Mar. 10, decreasing net working gas inventories to 1,972 Bcf. The week's draw compares with a year-ago pull of 86 Bcf and the five-year average of 77 Bcf. The surplus to the five-year average climbed to 378 Bcf, or 23.7%. The surplus to last year increased to 521 Bcf, or 35.9%. Next week's data is expected to show an 80 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 45 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

Regulators in the San Francisco Bay area this week passed new rules banning new natural gas furnaces and water heaters in residential and commercial buildings starting in 2027. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District said the goal is to reduce the emission of nitrogen oxide. “The 1.8 million water heaters and furnaces in the Bay Area significantly impact our air quality, resulting in dozens of early deaths and a wide range of health impacts, particularly in communities of color,” Philip Fine, executive officer of the air district, said in a statement. “This groundbreaking regulation will phase out the most polluting appliances in homes and businesses to protect Bay Area residents from the harmful air pollution they cause.” The rules would apply only to new appliances and would be phased in over time, starting with water heaters in 2027. They do not apply to appliances used for cooking, such as gas stoves.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso PermianWaha HubTranswes E of ThoreauPanhandleNGPL-South TexasMalinKern River DeliveredEl Paso - South MainlinePG&E SouthNW Rockies-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%El Paso PermianWaha HubTranswes E of ThoreauPanhandleNGPL-South TexasMalinKern River DeliveredEl Paso - South MainlinePG&E SouthNW Rockies
Note: Mar 16' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (37), down (34).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 16, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 17, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 16, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.2Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 15 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Mar 16, '23
42%48%43%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 16 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 15 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
197419381964255824882364228623212126Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13Mar 14Mar 15Mar 16(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600180020002200240026002800Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13Mar 14Mar 15Mar 16NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
9 Mar 2310 Mar 2311 Mar 2312 Mar 2313 Mar 2314 Mar 2315 Mar 238000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000 9 Mar 2310 Mar 2311 Mar 2312 Mar 2313 Mar 2314 Mar 2315 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)10001100120013001400150016001700180019002000 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
24625927827629225024023510 March11 March12 March13 March14 March15 March16 March17 March05010015020025030010 March11 March12 March13 March14 March15 March16 March17 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 3°
Orlando -7°
Boston 4°
Washington -2°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 2°
Nashville -3°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 5°
Denver -5°
Austin 7°
Atlanta -3°
Southeast US
New York 3°
Orlando -7°
Boston 4°
Washington -2°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 2°
Nashville -3°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 5°
Denver -5°
Austin 7°
Atlanta -3°

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