March 15, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures shed 13.4¢ Wednesday to close at $2.439 per million Btu. The drop came despite an outlook for cold temperatures in the weeks ahead, which “could enable Nymex futures to trend moderately higher in the coming weeks,” according to Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn. The next storage report is expected to increase the working gas inventory surplus for the ninth time in 10 weeks, but early estimates have the draw for the week ending Mar. 17 exceeding the five-year average. “With Freeport LNG continuing to ramp up, the bulls eyes have been laser focused on major producers to assist in keeping natural gas prices elevated via production pull-backs,” Gelber & Associates said.

The 12-month strip fell 15.5¢ to $3.179; the 2024 strip declined 12.8¢ to $3.627 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Iroquois Zone 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 94¢ to $2.50. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 21¢ at $2.42. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 34¢ to average $2.28, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 54¢ to average $2.51. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 3¢ to average $1.29. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 16¢ to $5.94, SoCal Citygate advanced 40¢ to average $7.48 and Northwest Sumas lost 45¢ to average $3.38. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 8¢ to $2.21 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a much smaller-than-average 62 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ending Mar. 10 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 1,968 Bcf, about 23% above the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 86 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 77 Bcf. Last week, mild temperatures brought heating degree days to 129, well below the 144 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Mar. 17 are for a 80 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 45 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 55 Bcf.

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The proposed Cedar LNG project in British Columbia is two steps closer to a final investment decision (FID) following receipt of a key environmental permit and the signing of an initial commercial agreement. The Western Canadian province announced Tuesday it had issued an environmental assessment certificate for the 3 million metric tons per year project being developed by the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline at Kitimat. The BC government also said it would work with the developers to further reduce emissions related to the project, with a goal to get “near zero” by 2030. Cedar LNG is the first Indigenous-owned Canadian LNG export project to receive the provincial environmental assessment certificate. The scheme relies on a floating liquefaction that would be built at an existing shipyard in Asia to reduce costs and impacts to the environment. In addition, the developers plan to power the facility using hydroelectricity, which it claims will make it one of the lowest-emissions LNG projects in the world. The Haisla and Pembina are targeting an FID in the third quarter of this year, with start-up anticipated for 2027.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
NW RockiesWhite River HubEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanTransco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Z6 - NYAlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%NW RockiesWhite River HubEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanTransco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Z6 - NYAlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2
Note: Mar 15' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (18), down (62).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 15, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 16, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 15, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.2Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 14 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 15 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 14 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
197419741938196425582488236422862321Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13Mar 14Mar 15(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600180020002200240026002800Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13Mar 14Mar 15NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
8 Mar 23 9 Mar 2310 Mar 2311 Mar 2312 Mar 2313 Mar 2314 Mar 238000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000 8 Mar 23 9 Mar 2310 Mar 2311 Mar 2312 Mar 2313 Mar 2314 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)10001100120013001400150016001700 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2502462592782762922612439 March10 March11 March12 March13 March14 March15 March16 March0501001502002503009 March10 March11 March12 March13 March14 March15 March16 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -5°
Orlando -8°
Boston -4°
Washington -11°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia -9°
Nashville -13°
Minneapolis 2°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas 3°
Detroit -5°
Denver 14°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -15°
Southeast US
New York -5°
Orlando -8°
Boston -4°
Washington -11°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia -9°
Nashville -13°
Minneapolis 2°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas 3°
Detroit -5°
Denver 14°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -15°

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