March 13, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures jumped 17.6¢ Monday to $2.606 per million Btu amid expectations of a cold start to spring. “Major weather models still see a cooler outlook than normal for the next two weeks with a slight warmup coming later in the forecast period,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “Due to the cooler than normal weather there is a slight bullish driver and April is though to continue the cooler-than-normal trend. … Should weather models keep their same projections … this may have the added effect of increasing storage withdrawals and tightening the gap between current working storage and the five-year average.” The Energy Information Administration (EIA) pegged inventories in the week to Mar. 3 at 2,030 Bcf, a 359 Bcf, or 21.5% surplus to the five-year average.

The 12-month strip increased 13.4¢ to $3.388; the 2024 strip climbed 5.9¢ to $3.777 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Tenn Gas Zone 6 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.92 to $4.75. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 6¢ at $2.43. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 32¢ to average $2.72, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $1.41 to average $4.23. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 4¢ to average $1.42. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 66¢ to $5.44, SoCal Citygate advanced 44¢ to average $6.46 and Northwest Sumas lost 90¢ to average $3.09. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 16¢ to $2.32 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

EIA expects US shale gas production to continue setting new records through the start of spring. According to the agency’s latest drilling productivity report, output at the nation’s seven largest shale plays will have grown 419 million cubic feet per day in April to reach 96.62 billion cubic feet per day, up 5.33 Bcf/d year over year. The Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin account for the lion’s share of that growth. In the Haynesville, the EIA expects production to rise 112.9 MMcf/d to reach 16.8 Bcf/d, up 1.84 Bcf/d from last April. In the Permian, the EIA estimates production will grow 92.7 MMcf/d to reach 22.50 Bcf/d, up 1.57 Bcf/d from a year ago. The agency expects Appalachian production will grow 74.6 MMcf/d to 34.95 Bcf/d, up 543.6 MMcf/d year over year. The EIA bases its production estimates on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimated drilling productivity, and estimated changes in output from existing oil and gas wells.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanTransco Z6 - Non-NY  El Paso PermianEl Paso - South MainlineNW Sumas-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanTransco Z6 - Non-NY  El Paso PermianEl Paso - South MainlineNW Sumas
Note: Mar 13' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (77), down (3).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 13, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 14, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 13, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.2Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 10 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 13 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 10 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
204220391974197419381964255824882364Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600180020002200240026002800Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10Mar 11Mar 12Mar 13NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 23 8 Mar 23 9 Mar 2310 Mar 2360008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 23 8 Mar 23 9 Mar 2310 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)1150120012501300135014001450150015501600165017001750 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2682732502462592782772897 March8 March9 March10 March11 March12 March13 March14 March0501001502002503007 March8 March9 March10 March11 March12 March13 March14 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 11°
Boston 3°
Washington -3°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville -9°
Minneapolis -13°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -4°
Denver 1°
Austin -4°
Atlanta -11°
Southeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 11°
Boston 3°
Washington -3°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville -9°
Minneapolis -13°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas 4°
Detroit -4°
Denver 1°
Austin -4°
Atlanta -11°

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