March 10, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures tumbled 11.3¢ Friday to $2.430 per million Btu, marking a one-week decline of 57.8¢. But prices may not have much further to fall as analysts contemplate a tightening market. Aside from milder weather forecasts that sent prices plunging from $3/MMBtu a week ago, "the fundamentals in the natural gas market have been relatively unchanged," Gelber & Associates analysts said Friday. As Freeport LNG — offline since an explosion last June — has received permission from federal regulators to ramp to 2 billion cubic feet per day of exports, traders are looking for evidence that producers are following through on plans to drop rigs in response to low prices — something the US Energy Information Administration expects will hold dry gas production near current levels of around 100 Bcf/d.

The 12-momth strip fell 10.5¢ to $3.254; the 2024 strip declined 6.9¢ to $3.719 (Futures contracts).

* * *

NW Sumas saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.59 to $3.99. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 13¢ at $2.37. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 6¢ to average $2.40, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 5¢ to average $2.83. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 24¢ to average $1.38. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 96¢ to $4.78, SoCal Citygate declined $1.28 to average $6.01 and Northwest Sumas lost $1.59 to average $3.99. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 6¢ to $2.16 (Daily cash prices).

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The US Department of the Interior is now eyeing the end of the year for finalizing its much-anticipated offshore gas and oil leasing plan, prompting backlash from offshore producers and lawmakers. In a court filing this week, Walter Cruickshank, deputy director of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, said the agency needs until December to complete the next five-year leasing plan. He said a final plan is dependent on a preliminary decision by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland on the “size, timing and location of potential lease sales” to be included. The litigation, filed by the American Petroleum Institute, is challenging the delays in putting a new plan into place given the previous plan expired last June. The Biden administration is defending the delays as reasonable, arguing that the “last few years have brought unprecedented challenges and setbacks, from changing presidential administrations with contrasting policies to adverse federal court decisions.” Although a proposed plan was issued last June offering a range of zero to 11 lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska’s Cook Inlet, nothing has been finalized.

* * *

The US rig count fell three to 746 last week, up 83 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs fell one to 153, up 18 from a year ago, while oil rigs fell by two to 590, up 63 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 27 rigs to 343, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 16 to 72. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up two at 67 (Rig count).
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
PanhandleCheyenne HubAlgonquinTransco Leidy LineTetco M3SoCal CitygateTranswes E of ThoreauKern - Wheeler RidgeKern River DeliveredNW Sumas-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%PanhandleCheyenne HubAlgonquinTransco Leidy LineTetco M3SoCal CitygateTranswes E of ThoreauKern - Wheeler RidgeKern River DeliveredNW Sumas
Note: Mar 10' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (5), down (75).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 10, 2023 / Flow Dates: Mar. 11-13, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 10, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.2Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 9 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Mar 10 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 10 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 9 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
164716291715204220391974197419381964Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9Mar 10NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 23 8 Mar 23 9 Mar 2370008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000 3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 23 8 Mar 23 9 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)11001200130014001500160017001800 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)1000150020002500300035004000450028 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)1000120014001600180020002200240028 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar 9 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2582452352682732502512654 March5 March6 March7 March8 March9 March10 March11 March0501001502002503004 March5 March6 March7 March8 March9 March10 March11 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -3°
Orlando 4°
Boston -2°
Washington -6°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas 8°
Detroit -9°
Denver 9°
Austin -3°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York -3°
Orlando 4°
Boston -2°
Washington -6°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia -5°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas 8°
Detroit -9°
Denver 9°
Austin -3°
Atlanta -2°

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