March 9, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures slipped 0.8¢ Thursday to $2.543 per million Btu. The contract had been trading as high as $2.644 ahead of the morning release of the latest weekly storage report, but quickly retreated toward Wednesday’s settlement despite the latest withdrawal coming 4 billion cubic feet higher than consensus. According to Gelber & Associates analysts, while colder than normal weather will likely lead withdrawals toward the higher end of estimates in the coming weeks, end-of-season stockpiles are on track to land near 1,800 Bcf, about 30% higher than last year and 17.5% above the five-year average. “Winter blasts may not be enough to save natural gas but progress on Freeport LNG should provide a floor,” Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn said. The 15 million ton per year terminal received federal approval Wednesday to restart Train 1, meaning all three of the Texas export facility’s liquefaction trains have been authorized to return to service. Freeport has been offline since a June 2022 fire and explosion, curtailing roughly 2 billion cubic feet per day of exports.

The 12-month strip declined 2.6¢ to $3.359; the 2024 strip fell 5.9¢ to $3.788 (Futures contracts).

* * *

PG&E South saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.40 to $3.02. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 1¢ at $2.51. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 1¢ to average $2.46, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 20¢ to average $2.78. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 6¢ to average $1.62. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $1.62 to $5.74, SoCal Citygate declined $1.14 to average $7.29 and Northwest Sumas lost $1.66 to average $5.58. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 14¢ to $2.22 (Daily cash prices).

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The US Energy Information Administration reported an 84 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ended Mar. 3, decreasing net working gas inventories to 2,030 Bcf. The week's draw compares with a year-ago pull of 126 Bcf and the five-year average of 101 Bcf. The surplus to the five-year average climbed to 359 Bcf, or 21.5%. The surplus to last year increased to 493 Bcf, or 32.1%. Next week's data is expected to show a 60 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 77 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

Some Oklahoma regulators are urging the state attorney general to open an investigation into whether natural gas markets were manipulated during February 2021’s Winter Storm Uri, when spot prices skyrocketed. Oklahoma Corporation Commission (OCC) member Kim David, in a letter this week to AG Gentner Drummond, cited an ongoing probe in neighboring Kansas into possible wrongdoing by gas marketers during the deadly storm. Kansas AG Kris Kobach has also filed a lawsuit against Macquarie Energy alleging manipulation, which the company has denied. “I believe that you should conduct a similar investigation,” David told Drummond. “Should you determine that wrongdoing occurred, it is my hope that any overpayments can be returned to Oklahoma ratepayers." OCC member Bob Anthony said in a separate statement that “if Kansas can do it, so can we. The people of Oklahoma are already paying through the nose; they deserve to know the truth about these high bills."

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2Southern StarLebanon HubNW RockiesTetco ELANW SumasMalinStanfieldEl Paso - South MainlinePG&E South-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%Westcoast Station 2Southern StarLebanon HubNW RockiesTetco ELANW SumasMalinStanfieldEl Paso - South MainlinePG&E South
Note: Mar 9' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (24), down (55).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 9, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 10, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 9, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.2Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 8 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Mar 2, '23
45%52%46%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 9 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 8 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
167816471629171520422039197419741938Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8Mar 9NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23 3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 2370008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000 1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23 3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700180028 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)1000150020002500300035004000450027 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 Mar(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)1000120014001600180020002200240027 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar 8 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2632582452352682732602613 March4 March5 March6 March7 March8 March9 March10 March0501001502002503003 March4 March5 March6 March7 March8 March9 March10 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 4°
Boston -1°
Washington -3°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit -6°
Denver -1°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 4°
Boston -1°
Washington -3°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia -2°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit -6°
Denver -1°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 1°

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