March 8, 2023

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

April natural gas futures fell 13.6¢ Wednesday to $2.551 per million Btu as supply-demand fundamentals continue to loosen. “Weather forecasts are trending slightly warmer and LNG export flows have pulled back slightly, adding to the already-robust levels of domestic supply,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. Over the next couple of weeks, analysts anticipate working gas storage volumes will continue to grow relative to historical averages, which could keep a lid on prices.

The 12-month strip dropped 9.2¢ to $3.385; the 2024 strip declined 5¢ to $3.847 (Futures contracts).

* * *

PG&E South saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.56 to $4.41. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 3¢ at $2.49. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 9¢ to average $2.45, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 36¢ to average $2.98. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 9¢ to average $1.68. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $ to $7.36, SoCal Citygate declined 58¢ to average $8.43 and Northwest Sumas lost 97¢ to average $7.24. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 8¢ to $2.36 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a much smaller-than-average 80 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Mar. 3 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,034 Bcf, about 22% above the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 126 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 101 Bcf. Last week, mild temperatures brought heating degree days to 135, well below the 156 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Mar. 10 are for a 60 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 77 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 86 Bcf.

* * *

Freeport LNG on Wednesday received federal approval to restart Train 1, meaning all three of the Texas export facility’s liquefaction trains have been authorized to return to service. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, along with the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, granted the approval after a joint visit to the site on Mar. 2. Meanwhile, an electrical trip occurred Tuesday that forced Trains 2 and 3, which have started operating at full capacity, offline, a source with knowledge of the matter told Energy Intelligence. Freeport said Wednesday that “a conservative ramp-up profile to establish full three-train production is anticipated to occur over the next few weeks." The 15 million ton per year terminal has been offline since a June 2022 fire and explosion, curtailing roughly 2 billion cubic feet per day of exports.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
PG&E SouthWestcoast Station 2El Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanKern River DeliveredSoCal BorderTenn Gas Zone 6El Paso - South MainlineNW Rockies-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%PG&E SouthWestcoast Station 2El Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanKern River DeliveredSoCal BorderTenn Gas Zone 6El Paso - South MainlineNW Rockies
Note: Mar 8' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (14), down (67).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 8, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 9, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 8, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.2Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 7 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 8 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 7 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
168716781647162917152042203919741974Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7Mar 8NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23 3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 2370008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000 1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23 3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23 7 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700180027 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)1000150020002500300035004000450026 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 Mar(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)1000120014001600180020002200240026 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar 7 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2322632582452352682862692 March3 March4 March5 March6 March7 March8 March9 March0501001502002503002 March3 March4 March5 March6 March7 March8 March9 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 11°
Boston 3°
Washington -1°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 5°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit -1°
Denver -10°
Austin 15°
Atlanta 3°
Southeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 11°
Boston 3°
Washington -1°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 5°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit -1°
Denver -10°
Austin 15°
Atlanta 3°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com