March 7, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures meandered 11.5¢ higher Tuesday to $2.687 per million Btu, recovering just over a fourth of Monday’s decline. That pullback came as weather forecasts through mid-March moderated, repeating this winter’s pattern where “an outlook of cold or even shockingly frigid forecasted temperatures … ultimately do not materialize,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “That being said, the next 14 days of March are still going to witness temperatures below the 10-year normal with elevated demand, just not to the extent that was previously forecasted.”

The 12-month strip climbed 11.6¢ to $3.477; the 2024 strip moved 10.2¢ higher to $3.897 (Futures contracts).

* * *

PG&E South saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $3.86 to $2.86. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 6¢ at $2.52. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 10¢ to average $2.53, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $2.92 to average $3.35. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 5¢ to average $1.77. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 94¢ to $8.36, SoCal Citygate advanced 16¢ to average $9.01 and Northwest Sumas lost 66¢ to average $8.21. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 6¢ to $2.28 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) further cut its first-quarter and full-year 2023 gas price forecasts Tuesday, citing a mild winter that has allowed storage inventories to surge. The EIA now expects Q1 Henry Hub prices to average $2.70 per million Btu, down from its February forecast of $3.13/MMBtu. It projects a 2023 average of $3.02/MMBtu, down from $3.40/MMBtu last month and more than a 50% decline from 2022’s average. The agency said US gas consumption this quarter will average 99.1 billion cubic feet per day, “the result of very mild temperatures that have reduced demand for space heating.” As a result, it said the US will end the withdrawal season Mar. 31 with more than 1.9 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage, 23% more than the five-year average and 27% more than it forecast just two months ago. The EIA also raised its 2023 gas production guidance a nominal 0.4% to 100.7 Bcf/d. For 2024, it sees an average Henry Hub price of $3.89/MMBtu, down from February’s forecast of $4.04/MMBtu.

* * *

Washington and Ottawa need to improve the consistency and speed of infrastructure permitting for the natural gas industry to be able to meet long-term demand and keep the commodity affordable for consumers, executives told CERAWeek by S&P Global on Tuesday. “There’s a big void in the amount of infrastructure that’s being built or not built in North America,” Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco said during a panel discussion. “Here in [North America] last year was the least amount of investment in natural gas pipelines since 1993. We’ve got to change that.” The answer, according to Fusco and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel, is to improve the cumbersome and lengthy permitting processes in both the US and Canada that can delay energy infrastructure projects for years and discourage investment. Ebel pointed to the US Gulf Coast as a region in which infrastructure projects have had an easier time getting built because of a more accommodating regulatory and permitting environment. He contrasted that with the US Northeast, which is “only a few hundred miles from the Marcellus Shale,” yet still suffers from supply constraints that cause gas prices to skyrocket for consumers. “There’s only reason for that, and that’s infrastructure," Ebel said. "You’re asking people to pay unbelievable [gas] prices purely as a result of the infrastructure not being there.”

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso - South MainlineOneokNNG DemarcANR SWCheyenne HubIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinDracutPG&E South-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%El Paso - South MainlineOneokNNG DemarcANR SWCheyenne HubIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinDracutPG&E South
Note: Mar 7' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (53), down (29).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 7, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 8, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 7, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.4Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 6 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 7 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 6 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
165416871678164716291715204220391974Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800200022002400Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3Mar 4Mar 5Mar 6Mar 7NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
28 Feb 23 1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23 3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23700080009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700028 Feb 23 1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23 3 Mar 23 4 Mar 23 5 Mar 23 6 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)10001100120013001400150016001700180026 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)5001000150020002500300035004000450025 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 Mar(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400260025 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar 5 Mar 6 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2722322632582452352722891 March2 March3 March4 March5 March6 March7 March8 March0501001502002503001 March2 March3 March4 March5 March6 March7 March8 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 13°
Boston -2°
Washington 1°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis 4°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 4°
Denver -5°
Austin 18°
Atlanta 17°
Southeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 13°
Boston -2°
Washington 1°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis 4°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 4°
Denver -5°
Austin 18°
Atlanta 17°

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