March 3, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas future broke higher Friday, rallying 24.4¢ to settle at $3.009 per million Btu, the first time the nearby contract has settled above $3 since Jan. 27. This week’s rally, punctuated only by a 4.6¢ decline Thursday, marks the second consecutive week that prices have moved higher, and may be a sign that the market is starting to get some support in a year that has seen gas prices tumble in six out of nine weeks. “The rebound seems to coincide with the reopening of the Freeport LNG export terminal as well as the possibility that we could get some weather,” Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn said Friday. At the same time, gas bulls are optimistic that announcements by some Haynesville Shale producers that they will curb activity will eventually manifest in slowing production growth. “Hitting the brakes on growth won’t be easy in the Haynesville Shale,” East Daley analysts wrote Thursday. “While producers plan to drop rigs this year in response to lower natural gas prices, supply gains are likely to prove sticky. … Productivity can be a double-edged sword as operators look to slow growth.”

The 12-month strip jumped 19.3¢ to $3.698, while the 2024 strip climbed 11.5¢ to $3.928 (Futures contracts).

* * *

PG&E South saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $5.25 to $5.90. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 1¢ at $2.66. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 14¢ to average $2.51, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 7¢ to average $4.14. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 24¢ to average $2.16. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $4 to $7.19, SoCal Citygate declined $3.84 to average $8.09 and Northwest Sumas lost $3.49 to average $7.21. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 13¢ to $2.41 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US rig count fell four to 749 last week, up 99 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs climbed three to 154, up 24 from a year ago, while oil rigs fell by eight to 592, up 73 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 39 rigs to 349, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 17 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up four at 67 (Rig count).
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Westcoast Station 2KingsgateTenn Gas Zone 6AECOIroquois Zone 2Kern - Wheeler RidgeSoCal BorderNW RockiesEl Paso - South MainlinePG&E South-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Westcoast Station 2KingsgateTenn Gas Zone 6AECOIroquois Zone 2Kern - Wheeler RidgeSoCal BorderNW RockiesEl Paso - South MainlinePG&E South
Note: Mar 3' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (10), down (72).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 3, 2023 / Flow Dates: Mar. 4-6, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 3, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.6Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 2 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Mar 3 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 3 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 2 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
150214341440159116541687167816471629Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2Mar 3NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
24 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 2328 Feb 23 1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 2328 Feb 23 1 Mar 23 2 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170022 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)5001000150020002500300035004000450021 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400260021 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar 2 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
36229126525627223226525325February26February27February28February1 March2 March3 March4 March05010015020025030035025February26February27February28February1 March2 March3 March4 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 8°
Boston -2°
Washington 3°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 9°
Minneapolis 3°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -12°
Detroit 0°
Denver -2°
Austin 5°
Atlanta 8°
Southeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 8°
Boston -2°
Washington 3°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 9°
Minneapolis 3°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -12°
Detroit 0°
Denver -2°
Austin 5°
Atlanta 8°

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