March 2, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

On the heels of a six-day, 63.4¢ rally, April gas futures drifted 4.6¢ lower Thursday to $2.765 per million Btu. The contract initially sought higher territory during Thursday's session, reaching a high of $2.863, before the release of the latest storage report showed the balance of working gas in US storage again climbed relative to the five-year average. Still, the latest draw exceeded consensus expectations by 6 Bcf. That, and expectations of more cold weather to come, kept prices from falling too far. Meanwhile, expectations that producers will dial back production in response to low prices pushed 2024 contracts slightly higher.

The 12-month strip slipped 2.1¢ to $3.506; the 2024 strip climbed 3¢ to $3.813 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Stanfield saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $4.41 to $11.05. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 8¢ at $2.67. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 18¢ to average $2.64, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 79¢ to average $4.08. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 13¢ to average $2.40. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 2¢ to $11.18, SoCal Citygate advanced 12¢ to average $11.93 and Northwest Sumas lost 12¢ to average $10.70. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 10¢ to $2.28 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported an 81 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ended Feb. 24, decreasing net working gas inventories to 2,114 Bcf. This week's draw compares with a year-ago pull of 137 Bcf and the five-year average of 134 Bcf. The surplus to the five-year average climbed to 342 Bcf, or 19.3%. The surplus to last year climbed to 451 Bcf, or 27.1%. Next week's data is expected to show a 75 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 101 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

Last year saw the smallest volume of US interstate gas pipeline capacity added to the grid since the Energy Information Administration (EIA) began collecting data in 1995. A total of 897 million cubic feet per day was brought online in 2022 from five projects, the EIA said Thursday. The agency attributed that small number to a shift in spending on new intrastate pipeline capacity – particularly along the Gulf Coast -- as well as lower overall capital expenditures by the gas industry. It noted that most of the interstate takeaway capacity to accommodate booming production from the Appalachian Basin has been completed. The five capacity additions last year involved Columbia Gulf Transmission’s Louisiana Xpress Project; Florida Gas Transmission’s Mobile County and its Southwest Alabama Project; ANR Pipeline’s Wisconsin Access Project; and Gulfstream Natural Gas’ Phase 4 Expansion Project.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
StanfieldAlgonquinPG&E SouthIroquois Zone 2OneokKern River DeliveredEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanWestcoast Station 2Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%StanfieldAlgonquinPG&E SouthIroquois Zone 2OneokKern River DeliveredEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanWestcoast Station 2Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan
Note: Mar 2' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (71), down (11).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 2, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 3, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 2, '23
Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24Mar '24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.4Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24Mar '24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Mar 1 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Mar 2, '23
45%52%46%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 2 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Mar 1 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
142315041502143414401591165416871678Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1Mar 2NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
23 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 2328 Feb 23 1 Mar 23600080001000012000140001600018000200002200023 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 2328 Feb 23 1 Mar 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170021 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 MarCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500020 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 MarWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 Mar(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400260020 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb 1 MarPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
35336229126525627223726224 February25 February26 February27 February28 February1 March2 March3 March05010015020025030035024 February25 February26 February27 February28 February1 March2 March3 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 4°
Boston 9°
Washington 11°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville 13°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -10°
Las Vegas -10°
Detroit 4°
Denver -8°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 12°
Southeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 4°
Boston 9°
Washington 11°
Seattle -2°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville 13°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -10°
Las Vegas -10°
Detroit 4°
Denver -8°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 12°

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