March 1, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures climbed 7¢ Wednesday to $2.81 per million Btu, marking a six-day, 63.4¢ rally after the front-month contract flirted with a $1 handle just a week ago. “Freeport LNG’s progress as well as some concerns about some production cutbacks is fueling the rebound,” Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn said, citing plans by some Haynesville Shale gas producers to drop rigs in response to low prices. Prospects for cold weather during the early part of the month are also in play. “The market is still in an incredibly volatile state,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “March could bring in demand for natural gas that is the highest since early February. While the market is certainly reacting to short-term colder-than-normal temperatures, a fundamental shift has not yet occurred which would give market bulls more significant scaffolding to build upon for a chance to make a run back up above $4/MMBtu.”

The 12-month strip increased 6.9¢ to $3.527; the 2024 strip jumped 8.5¢ to $3.783 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.77 to $4.03. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 8¢ at $2.59. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 2¢ to average $2.46, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 16¢ to average $3.29. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 31¢ to average $2.27. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $3.24 to $11.20, SoCal Citygate advanced $3.54 to average $11.81 and Northwest Sumas gained $2.3 to average $10.82. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 6¢ to $2.18 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a much smaller-than-average 75 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Feb. 24 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,120 Bcf, about 19.6% above the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 137 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 134 Bcf. Last week, mild temperatures brought heating degree days to 145, well below the 167 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Mar. 3 are for a 75 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 101 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 126 Bcf.

* * *

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is forecasting upstream oil and natural gas investment will hit $40 billion in 2023, surpassing pre-Covid investment levels and marking an 11% increase over 2022. Conventional oil and gas capex for 2023 is forecast at $28.5 billion, while oil sands investment is pegged at $11.5 billion. CAPP said producers are expected to remain focused on capital discipline “with the increased spending going toward maintenance and incremental growth projects while also managing inflationary pressures that are impacting the entire supply chain.” Additional spending is also expected to go toward environmental protection and technologies such as carbon capture utilization and storage.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Bidweek Prices

Bidweek Price Table for March 2023
Flow Dates: 3/1-3/31
Citygate Prices

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanWhite River HubEl Paso BondadKern River Delivered    Stanfield-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanWhite River HubEl Paso BondadKern River Delivered    Stanfield
Note: Mar 1' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (82), down (1).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Mar. 1, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 2, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC#N/A051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC#N/A
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Mar 1, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.4Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 28 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Mar 1 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 28 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
142315041502143414401591165416871678Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28Mar 1NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
22 Feb 2323 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 2328 Feb 236000800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600022 Feb 2323 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 2328 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190020 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500019 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400260019 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb28 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
31535336229126525626924123February24February25February26February27February28February1 March2 March05010015020025030035023February24February25February26February27February28February1 March2 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 5°
Boston 1°
Washington 5°
Seattle -7°
Philadelphia 2°
Nashville 18°
Minneapolis 2°
Los Angeles -9°
Las Vegas -13°
Detroit 8°
Denver -5°
Austin 21°
Atlanta 7°
Southeast US
New York 0°
Orlando 5°
Boston 1°
Washington 5°
Seattle -7°
Philadelphia 2°
Nashville 18°
Minneapolis 2°
Los Angeles -9°
Las Vegas -13°
Detroit 8°
Denver -5°
Austin 21°
Atlanta 7°

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