February 28, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures drifted 1.6¢ higher Tuesday to $2.747 per million Btu, suggesting that the latest rally may be running out of steam. Prices fell as low as $2.568 during morning trading, but some bullish trends have emerged, including easing production, ramping LNG exports, and a colder weather forecast for early March. “Despite this, many market players are still recovering from the black eye left by freezing early winter forecasts which never materialized,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “US natural gas in storage will be the large counterbalancing factor providing significant downward pressure on price.”

The 12-month strip rose 2.6¢ to $3.458; the 2024 strip climbed 4.2¢ to $3.699 (Futures contracts).

* * *

NW Rockies saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $3.30 to $8.36. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 4¢ at $2.51. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 9¢ to average $2.45, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $4.10 to average $3.12. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 19¢ to average $1.95. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 93¢ to $7.96, SoCal Citygate advanced 25¢ to average $8.27 and Northwest Sumas gained $2.25 to average $8.52. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco held at $2.12 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Excelerate Energy has signed a deal to buy LNG from Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG export facility in Louisiana for a 20-year term. Under the sales and purchase agreement (SPA) announced Tuesday, Texas-based Excelerate will purchase 0.7 million tons per year on a free on board basis from Plaquemines Phase 1, a 10 million tons/yr project that is under development on the US Gulf Coast. The deal comes days after China Gas said it was buying 1 million tons/yr Plaquemines another 1 million tons/yr from Venture Global’s CP2 LNG export facility, which is expected to see a final investment decision this year. The Excelerate SPA brings the volume of offtake deals from Plaquemines’ Phase 1 to 7.2 million tons/yr, or 72% of available capacity. Excelerate, primarily a developer of floating storage and regasification units (FSRU), called the deal “an important milestone as we continue to execute our growth strategy to … offer more flexible and cost-effective products to existing and new customers in downstream markets."

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
NW RockiesWestcoast Station 2NW SumasPG&E SouthStanfieldEl Paso San JuanIroquois Zone 2DracutTenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%NW RockiesWestcoast Station 2NW SumasPG&E SouthStanfieldEl Paso San JuanIroquois Zone 2DracutTenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin
Note: Feb 28' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (52), down (24).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 28, 2023 / Flow Date: Mar. 1, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 28, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.4Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 27 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 28 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 27 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
141614231504150214341440159116541687Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27Feb 28NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
21 Feb 2322 Feb 2323 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 2340006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600021 Feb 2322 Feb 2323 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2327 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190019 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500018 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400260018 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb27 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
31731535336229126526226422February23February24February25February26February27February28February1 March05010015020025030035022February23February24February25February26February27February28February1 MarchCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 7°
Boston 1°
Washington 6°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 10°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -12°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 6°
Denver 0°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 9°
Southeast US
New York 1°
Orlando 7°
Boston 1°
Washington 6°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 10°
Minneapolis 1°
Los Angeles -12°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 6°
Denver 0°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 9°

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