February 27, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

April gas futures jumped 18.3¢ Monday to $2.731 per million Btu, extending the April contact's four-day climb to 55.4¢. "Market traders appear to be using short-term fundamental bullish events as a profit taking opportunity," Gelber & Associates analysts said, pointing to weather forecasts that have mid-March temperatures “far below” the 10-year average and Freeport LNG’s resuming operations. Traders may also be responding to announcements by some producers that they intend to drop rigs in response to low gas prices. But the rally may not have much steam. “The market has been oversold in recent weeks, however this bullish run has brought the front-month contract outside of oversold status from a technical point of view,” the analysts said.

The 12-month strip climbed 9.6¢ to $3.432; the 2024 strip edged 3.5¢ to $3.656 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Iroquois saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $4.64 to $3.10. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 20¢ at $2.55. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 3¢ to average $2.53, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $5.59 to average $7.22. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 11¢ to average $1.76. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $5.32 to $7.02, SoCal Citygate declined $3.69 to average $8.01 and Northwest Sumas lost $5.15 to average $6.27. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 18¢ to $2.12 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Bucking a trend of producers responding to falling prices, Range Resources said Monday it plans to hold its 2023 production flat at between 2.12 and 2.16 billion cubic feet of gas-equivalent per day, while targeting approximately 30% liquids production. The pure-play Appalachian operator produced 2.12 Bcfe/d last year. Its 2023 “maintenance” capital budget of $570 million to $615 million, up from $488.1 million last year, includes between $540 million and $565 million for drilling and completion costs. “Due to efficiencies gained through the second half of 2022 and into early 2023, Range expects to have a slight build of in-process well inventory that will provide optionality into the 2024 and 2025 planning process,” the company said. Range is holding a conference call with investors on Tuesday at 9 a.m. ET to discuss its 2022 financial results and 2023 plans.

* * *

China Gas, a private city gas distributor, has signed two 20-year LNG sales and purchase agreements with US-based Venture Global, China Gas said Friday. Under the deals, China Gas will buy 1 million tons per year of LNG on a f.o.b. basis from Plaquemines LNG and another 1 million tons from the CP2 LNG export facility, both in Louisiana. The two deals, conducted through subsidiary China Gas Hongda Energy Trading, will start supply by the end of 2026 and by the end of 2027, respectively, said a China Gas source.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tenn Zone 0Transco Station 30OneokKaty HubTetco-South TexasPG&E SouthNW SumasIroquois Zone 2Westcoast Station 2Iroquois-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%Tenn Zone 0Transco Station 30OneokKaty HubTetco-South TexasPG&E SouthNW SumasIroquois Zone 2Westcoast Station 2Iroquois
Note: Feb 27' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (57), down (21).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 27, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 28, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 27, '23
Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24($/MMBtu)2.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.4Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 24 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 27 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 24 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
129814161423150415021434144015911654Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24Feb 25Feb 26Feb 27NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
20 Feb 2321 Feb 2322 Feb 2323 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 2340006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600020 Feb 2321 Feb 2322 Feb 2323 Feb 2324 Feb 2325 Feb 2326 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)800900100011001200130014001500160017001800190018 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500017 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)1000120014001600180020002200240017 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb24 Feb25 Feb26 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
23631731535336229127226521February22February23February24February25February26February27February28February05010015020025030035021February22February23February24February25February26February27February28FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days

Regional °F Degree Day DifferentialsValues listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 3°
Boston -5°
Washington 3°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 11°
Los Angeles -10°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -2°
Denver 6°
Austin 10°
Atlanta 11°
Southeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 3°
Boston -5°
Washington 3°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 11°
Los Angeles -10°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -2°
Denver 6°
Austin 10°
Atlanta 11°

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