February 24, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures climbed 13.7¢ Friday to roll off the board at $2.451 per million Btu. The April contract, which will take the lead position as prompt month, climbed 11.6¢ to $2.548/MMBtu. The three-day, 37.8¢ rally obscured how bearish sentiment has become in light of storage optics and the overall supply-demand balance. Prices dipped briefly below $2/MMBtu during Wednesday’s session. The runup “should be taken with a grain of salt,” Gelber & Associates analysts said Friday. “What was likely a short-covering rally in the low volume environment of the contracts final trading days as prompt, was only exacerbated by others looking to take advantage, extending the rally’s upside action.” As oversupplied as the market is, producers will need to cut activity, analysts say, and the rig drops announced so far by producers including Comstock Resources, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy are not enough to balance the market before the end of the next storage injection season.

The 12-month strip climbed 10.6¢ to $3.236; the 2024 strip increased 8.5¢ to $3.621 (Futures contracts).

* * *

El Paso Bondad saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.57 to $2.46. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 17¢ at $2.35. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 18¢ to average $2.56, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $3.05 to average $12.81. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 1¢ to average $1.66. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $1.32 to $12.34, SoCal Citygate declined $2.03 to average $11.71 and Northwest Sumas lost $1.28 to average $11.42. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 15¢ to $1.94 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The federal government next month will hold its first oil and natural gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico since 2021 — welcome news for an industry still concerned about future access to the prolific producing region. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) said Friday that Lease Sale 259 will be held on Mar. 29, days before a deadline mandated by last year’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The law required BOEM to reinstate the results of Lease Sale 257, which a judge had controversially vacated earlier in 2022, and forced the Biden administration to hold two more previously canceled sales on the Outer Continental Shelf by end of 2023. The scheduled March event is the first of those; Lease Sale 261 has not been officially scheduled but would likely be held in the late summer or fall.

* * *

The US rig count fell seven to 753 last week, up 103 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs remained at 151, up 24 from a year ago, while oil rigs fell by seven to 600, up 78 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 44 rigs to 353, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 17 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 7 at 68 (Rig count).
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso PermianHouston Ship ChannelHenry HubTransco Z6 - NYCol. Gulf - ErathTenn Gas Zone 6Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanNW RockiesEl Paso San JuanEl Paso Bondad-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%El Paso PermianHouston Ship ChannelHenry HubTransco Z6 - NYCol. Gulf - ErathTenn Gas Zone 6Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanNW RockiesEl Paso San JuanEl Paso Bondad
Note: Feb 24' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (33), down (41).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 24, 2023 / Flow Dates: Feb. 25-27, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 24, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.4Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 23 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Feb 24 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 24 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 23 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
9027671402129814161423150415021434Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23Feb 24NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
17 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 2321 Feb 2322 Feb 2323 Feb 2340006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600017 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 2321 Feb 2322 Feb 2323 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)100011001200130014001500160017001800190015 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500014 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)1200140016001800200022002400260014 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb23 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
32524218223631731534436318February19February20February21February22February23February24February25February05010015020025030035018February19February20February21February22February23February24February25FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -3°
Orlando 4°
Boston -13°
Washington 8°
Seattle -9°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis -18°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -10°
Denver -8°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 5°
Southeast US
New York -3°
Orlando 4°
Boston -13°
Washington 8°
Seattle -9°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville -6°
Minneapolis -18°
Los Angeles -3°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -10°
Denver -8°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 5°

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