February 23, 2023

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures climbed 14¢ Thursday to $2.314 per million Btu despite another well below-average pull from working gas storage stockpiles. Since the beginning of the year, reported withdrawals have lagged the five-year average by 497 billion cubic feet, and next week's report will likely add to that tally. Entering March, the likelihood of sizable withdrawals diminishes, and analysts say it's possible the end-of-winter storage balance could approach 2,008 Bcf, the highest level in the last five years.

The 12-month strip climbed 12.7¢ to $3.131; the 2024 strip increased 6.4¢ to $3.536 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Tenn Gas Zone 6 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $12.85 to $17.50. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 10¢ at $2.17. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 39¢ to average $2.38, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $11.50 to average $15.86. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 33¢ to average $1.64. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $5.23 to $13.66, SoCal Citygate advanced $5.40 to average $13.74 and Northwest Sumas gained $4.35 to average $12.70. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 8¢ to $2.09 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 71 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ended Feb. 17, decreasing net working gas inventories to 2,195 Bcf. This week's draw compares with a year-ago pull of 138 Bcf and the five-year average of 177 Bcf. The surplus to the five-year average climbed to 289 Bcf, or 15.2%. The surplus to last year climbed to 395 Bcf, or 21.9%. Next week's data is expected to show a 71 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 134 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

Cheniere Energy said Thursday it is planning a major expansion of its Sabine Pass LNG export terminal in Louisiana to help meet what it sees as a global gas supply gap in the coming decade. The company seeks to add 2.8 billion cubic feet per day of capacity – a roughly 70% increase – to the existing Louisiana terminal and has begun the pre-filing process with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Cheniere said it aims to produce LNG from the so-called Stage 5 Expansion Project by 2030. The expansion will be sited adjacent to the existing 4.2 Bcf/d Sabine Pass plant and will consist of three 6.5 million ton/yr capacity liquefaction trains, a boil-off-gas re-liquefaction unit with a capacity to produce 0.75 million tons/yr of LNG, and a pair of 220,000 cubic meter LNG storage tanks. Cheniere is also looking to incorporate waste-heat recovery and carbon capture and storage at the expansion, which should help attract LNG buyers — many of which are looking to reduce their carbon emissions.

* * *

Price Notice: Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing as follows:

For the Feb. 16, 2023 trade day:

Due to a revision by a data provider, at TGT Zone 1, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.34; High: $2.40; Average: $2.36; Volume: 141,600; Deals: 25.

Due to excluding an outlier trade, at Transco Zone 5, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.50; High: $2.56; Average: $2.54; Volume: 65,100; Deals: 15.

For the Feb. 3, 2023 trade day, to correct a prior revision:

At Questar, the revised pricing is Low: $2.70; High: $2.70; Average: $2.70; Volume: 10,000; Deals: 1.

At NW Rockies, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.30; High: $3.80; Average: $3.48; Volume: 45,641; Deals: 11.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinDracutIroquoisIroquois Zone 2     0%50%100%150%200%250%300%Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinDracutIroquoisIroquois Zone 2     
Note: Feb 23' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (77), down (0).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 23, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 24, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 23, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.6Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 22 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Feb 23, '23
46%57%48%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 23 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 22 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
973902767140212981416142315041502Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22Feb 23NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
16 Feb 2317 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 2321 Feb 2322 Feb 2340006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600016 Feb 2317 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 2321 Feb 2322 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200014 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500500013 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)10001200140016001800200022002400260013 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb22 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
31032524218223631730433617February18February19February20February21February22February23February24February05010015020025030035017February18February19February20February21February22February23February24FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 5°
Boston -5°
Washington 16°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis -14°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -3°
Denver -20°
Austin 17°
Atlanta 11°
Southeast US
New York 3°
Orlando 5°
Boston -5°
Washington 16°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis -14°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -3°
Denver -20°
Austin 17°
Atlanta 11°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com