February 22, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

The March Nymex gas futures contract on Wednesday recovered half of the prior day’s losses, gaining 10.1¢ to close at $2.174 per million Btu – but not before dropping below $2. The early morning dip to $1.967/MMBtu marked the lowest intraday level since September 2020. It was short-lived, however, and “indicators are showing technical momentum to the upside in the short term” as traders await Thursday’s weekly storage inventory data, an analyst said.

The 12-month strip rose 11.4¢ to $3.003; the 2024 strip moved up 5¢ lower to $3.472. Futures Contracts


* * *

Algonquin saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.08 to $4.36. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 3¢ at $2.07. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 11¢ to average $2.00, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $2.08 to average $4.36. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 8¢ to average $1.31. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $1.73 to $8.43, SoCal Citygate advanced 87¢ to average $8.34 and Northwest Sumas gained $2.29 to average $8.35. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 14¢ to $2.01. Cash Prices

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a much smaller-than-average 67 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Feb. 17 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,299 Bcf, about 15.4% above the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 138 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 177 Bcf. Last week, mild temperatures brought heating degree days to 147, well below the 177 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Feb. 24 are for a 71 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 134 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 137 Bcf.


* * *

Chesapeake Energy said Wednesday it will dial back on drilling and completing natural gas well this year thanks to a sharp drop in US gas prices. The announcement came as the Nymex March contract dipped below $2/MMBtu for the first time since the fall of 2020. "We certainly see that it's prudent to pull back capital, and we think we're seeing others do the same," CEO Nick Dell'Osso said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. Chesapeake plans to drop two of its seven rigs in the Haynesville Shale during the first half of 2023 and one of its five in the Marcellus Shale in the third quarter. The company also reduced its 2023 capital spending budget to between $1.765 billion and $1.835 billion from the $1.936 billion it spent in 2022. Dell'Osso said that Chesapeake has been eyeing taking a “cautious” approach to 2023 due to the way the market was shaping up. “We knew that the supply/demand dynamics were trending in a manner that supply was going to outpace demand. That has clearly happened and has been exacerbated by what has been a pretty low-demand winter.” But he said he expects prices to rebound in 2024 and 2025 as new LNG export capacity comes online, ramping up global demand for US gas. “Our macro outlook for gas hasn’t changed. We are very bullish on the long-term natural gas fundamentals,” Dell'Osso said.

Mark Davidson, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2NW RockiesNW SumasEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanTranswes E of ThoreauWhite River HubEl Paso San Juan-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2NW RockiesNW SumasEl Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanTranswes E of ThoreauWhite River HubEl Paso San Juan
Note: Feb 22' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (61), down (17).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 22, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 23, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 22, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)22.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.6Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 21 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 22 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 21 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
66597390276714021298141614231504Feb 14Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600Feb 14Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21Feb 22NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
15 Feb 2316 Feb 2317 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 2321 Feb 23500060007000800090001000011000120001300014000150001600015 Feb 2316 Feb 2317 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 2321 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200013 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500500012 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400260012 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb21 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
24531032524218223630029316February17February18February19February20February21February22February23February05010015020025030035016February17February18February19February20February21February22February23FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -1°
Orlando 4°
Boston 1°
Washington 2°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 21°
Minneapolis -2°
Los Angeles -4°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -4°
Denver -2°
Austin 20°
Atlanta 9°
Southeast US
New York -1°
Orlando 4°
Boston 1°
Washington 2°
Seattle -6°
Philadelphia 0°
Nashville 21°
Minneapolis -2°
Los Angeles -4°
Las Vegas -6°
Detroit -4°
Denver -2°
Austin 20°
Atlanta 9°

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