February 21, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

The March Nymex gas futures contract on Tuesday sank 20.2¢, or 8.9%, to settle at 2.073 per million Btu, the lowest level for a prompt-month contract since September 2020. US gas demand averaged a six-week low 104.41 billion cubic feet per day last week, according to Gelber & Associates (G&A), while total US production continued to tick up, climbing nearly 500 MMcf/d week over week to reach a near record 101.7 Bcf/d. “Recent weather runs have not provided much demand support either, as European weather models shifted warmer over Presidents' Day, which will bring 14 Bcf less demand in the next 14 days than previously forecasted,” G&A said. “With minor support zones near $2.15/MMBtu and $1.98/MMBtu will likely keep prices in a tight range before another breakdown of technical support could potentially send futures lower near $1.80/MMBtu.”

The 12-month strip fell 17.1¢ to $2.889; the 2024 strip moved 19.1¢ lower to $3.422. (Natural Gas Futures).

* * *

El Paso San Juan saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.34 to $4.52. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 17¢ at $2.10. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 14¢ to average $1.89, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 30¢ to average $2.28. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 24¢ to average $1.39. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $1.03 to $6.70, SoCal Citygate advanced $1.04 to average $7.46 and Northwest Sumas gained 99¢ to average $6.06. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 1¢ to $1.88. (Daily Cash Prices).


* * *

US regulators have now authorized a full return to commercial service for two of Freeport LNG's three liquefaction trains. But the third train isn't likely to return to service until May because of mechanical problems, meaning restoration of the Texas export terminal's full capacity is still months away. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has now authorized an "immediate full return to service of one liquefaction train, that has already restarted, and the incremental restart and full return to service of a second train," Freeport LNG Development said Tuesday. It said operations are now using two of Freeport's three LNG storage tanks and one of its two LNG ship berths. However, the restart and return to service of the plant's Train 1 "will require subsequent regulatory approval once certain operational conditions are met." The plant's second berth and third LNG storage tank aren't expected to return to service until May, suggesting that full operation of Train 1 will not happen until then. "Freeport can't start T1 right now, due to a big leak in the propane system, which is why they are going with Train 2 first," a source familiar with the operations told Energy Intelligence. FERC's authorization did not include restart of Train 1 and noted that Pre-Startup Safety Review documentation would have to be reviewed.


* * *

Gas pipeline giant Williams said Tuesday it has joined the United Nations Environment Programme’s Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0, a global initiative designed to improve the energy industry’s methane emissions reporting and to encourage progress in reducing emissions. In the past two years, nearly 100 companies with operations in more than 60 countries have joined the initiative, representing more than 35% of global gas and oil production. “Williams is committed to achieving the most stringent methane performance standards as prescribed by OGMP 2.0, thus setting the pace for the midstream sector in the United States,” said Alan Armstrong, Williams’ president and CEO. “We handle one third of US natural gas, giving us unique visibility to how gas molecules are produced, processed, transported and used. By leveraging new technology across our nationwide infrastructure footprint, we are confident we can enhance the trust and transparency needed to grow a differentiated low-emissions gas market.” Williams noted that it is involved in several other climate initiatives, including ONE Future, a group of natural gas companies working to voluntarily reduce methane emissions to less than 1% across the value chain.

Mark Davidson, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadWhite River HubSoCal BorderAlgonquinCol. Gas App. PoolWestcoast Station 2Waha HubTransco Zone 5-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%El Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadWhite River HubSoCal BorderAlgonquinCol. Gas App. PoolWestcoast Station 2Waha HubTransco Zone 5
Note: Feb 21' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (23), down (58).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 21, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 22, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 21, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)22.533.544.5Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 17 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 21 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 17 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
5716659739027671402129814161423Feb 13Feb 14Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Feb 13Feb 14Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20Feb 21NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
14 Feb 2315 Feb 2316 Feb 2317 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 2380009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700014 Feb 2315 Feb 2316 Feb 2317 Feb 2318 Feb 2319 Feb 2320 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200012 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500500011 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400260011 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb17 Feb18 Feb19 Feb20 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
22024531032524218223630015February16February17February18February19February20February21February22February05010015020025030035015February16February17February18February19February20February21February22FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 6°
Boston 2°
Washington 10°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 11°
Minneapolis -9°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit 3°
Denver 21°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 13°
Southeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 6°
Boston 2°
Washington 10°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 11°
Minneapolis -9°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit 3°
Denver 21°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 13°

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