February 17, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

The March Nymex gas futures contract settled Friday at $2.275 per million Btu, down 11.4¢ and marking a 26-month low for a front-month contract. Since December 15, the contract has lost more than 60% of its value, and some analysts are predicting a drop below $2. “Until the market finds some fundamental response -- either coal-to-gas fuel switching or producers pull back volumes -- the market is too loose,” Gelber & Associates analyst Brandon Olifant told Energy Intelligence, predicting further support at $1.80/MMBtu.


The 12-month strip fell 12.4¢ to $3.06; the 2024 strip moved 7.4¢ lower to $3.613 (Futures contracts).


* * *

Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 2.85 to $2.10. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 21¢ at $2.27. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 23¢ to average $2.03, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 17¢ to average $2.58. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 53¢ to average $1.63. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $1.12 to $5.67, SoCal Citygate declined 67¢ to average $6.43 and Northwest Sumas lost $1.42 to average $5.07. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 10¢ to $1.88. (Daily cash prices).


* * *

The US rig count slid by one to 760 last week, up 115 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs rose one to 151, up 27 from a year ago, while oil rigs fell by two to 607, up 87 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 46 rigs to 352, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 17 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 12 at 70 (Rig counts).

* * *

Midstream giant Williams said Friday it has executed agreements with Chevron U.S.A. to support natural gas development in the Haynesville Shale as well as the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. In the first agreement, Williams will provide gas gathering services to Chevron’s 26,000-acre Haynesville position, while Chevron has agreed to a long-term capacity commitment on Williams’ Louisiana Energy Gateway (LEG) project. Williams plans to construct a greenfield gathering system in support of Chevron’s acreage with connectivity to the LEG project, designed to gather gas produced in the Haynesville for delivery to premium markets, including industrial consumers and growing LNG export demand along the US Gulf Coast. LEG is expected to go into service in 2024. In the deepwater, Williams said it will provide offshore gas gathering and crude oil transportation services as well as onshore gas processing services for the production at Chevron’s Blind Faith Platform 160 miles southeast of New Orleans.
Mark Davidson, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
     Waha HubNW RockiesEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San Juan-60%-55%-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%     Waha HubNW RockiesEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San Juan
Note: Feb 17' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (0), down (77).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 17, 2023 / Flow Dates: Feb. 18-21, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 17, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 16 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Feb 17 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 17 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 16 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
632618643570571665973902767Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13Feb 14Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900100011001200Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13Feb 14Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
10 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 2313 Feb 2314 Feb 2315 Feb 2316 Feb 23700080009000100001100012000130001400015000160001700010 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 2313 Feb 2314 Feb 2315 Feb 2316 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)12001300140015001600170018001900 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220024002600 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb15 Feb16 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
28828624224222024530232211February12February13February14February15February16February17February18February05010015020025030035011February12February13February14February15February16February17February18FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 5°
Boston 9°
Washington 11°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville -5°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas -8°
Detroit 2°
Denver 5°
Austin -7°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 5°
Boston 9°
Washington 11°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville -5°
Minneapolis 0°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas -8°
Detroit 2°
Denver 5°
Austin -7°
Atlanta 1°

Notice to Subscribers

There will be no issue of Gas Market Reconnaissance published on February 20, 2023. The next issue will be dated February 21, 2023.

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