February 15, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures fell 9.6¢ Wednesday to $2.471 per million Btu as analysts anticipate that storage withdrawals in the coming weeks will significantly lag the five-year average. The market is searching for a bottom, but analysts agree it will take evidence of slowing production growth, continued progress toward Freeport LNG's resumption of exports at capacity, and demand-side support from cold temperatures.

The 12-month strip fell 6.5¢ to $3.228; the 2024 strip declined 1.8¢ to $3.622 (Futures contracts).

* * *

SoCal Border saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.51 to $7.24. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 2¢ at $2.44. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 8¢ to average $2.03, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 3¢ to average $2.12. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 18¢ to average $2.14. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $2.11 to $6.92, SoCal Citygate advanced $2.48 to average $7.67 and Northwest Sumas gained $1.88 to average $6.38. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 7¢ to $1.95 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a 109 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Feb. 10 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,257 Bcf, about 8.4% above the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 195 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 166 Bcf. Last week, mild temperatures brought heating degree days to 151, well below the 185 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Feb. 17 are for a 71 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 177 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 138 Bcf.

* * *

Ammonia and fertilizer producer CF Industries announced Wednesday it had inked a deal to buy 2.2 Bcf of certified natural gas from BP in 2023 as it strives to reduce its greenhouse gas intensity. The deal will help CF Industries achieve its goals of reducing Scope 3 emissions by 10% by 2030 and lowering "the lifecycle carbon intensity of ammonia production," which relies heavily on natural gas as a feedstock. The gas will be certified under MiQ's methane standard, which relies on independent third-party auditors to monitor, address and grade the gas used in CF Industries' ammonia production. "CF Industries is the first industrial giant to use MiQ-independently certified natural gas to significantly reduce Scope 3 emissions from its production process," MiQ CEO Georges Tijbosch said. "We've seen multiple utilities in the US purchase independently certified gas to reduce their emissions, and this commitment by CF Industries should be a trigger for other natural gas users in hard-to-abate industries to prioritize the minimization of their supply chain emissions through certification."
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
SoCal BorderEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateKern River / OpalStanfieldTransco Zone 5Westcoast Station 2AECOTenn Gas Zone 6Empress-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%SoCal BorderEl Paso - South MainlineSoCal CitygateKern River / OpalStanfieldTransco Zone 5Westcoast Station 2AECOTenn Gas Zone 6Empress
Note: Feb 15' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (69), down (10).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 15, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 16, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasNatural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasNatural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 15, '23
Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 14 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 15 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 14 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
553537632618643570571665973Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13Feb 14Feb 15(MMcf/d)01002003004005006007008009001000110012001300Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13Feb 14Feb 15NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
8 Feb 23 9 Feb 2310 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 2313 Feb 2314 Feb 2370008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000 8 Feb 23 9 Feb 2310 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 2313 Feb 2314 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)12001300140015001600170018001900 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb14 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2262462882862422422212449 February10 February11 February12 February13 February14 February15 February16 February0501001502002503003509 February10 February11 February12 February13 February14 February15 February16 FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 14°
Orlando 2°
Boston 14°
Washington 13°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 16°
Nashville 21°
Minneapolis 16°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -11°
Detroit 24°
Denver -12°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 5°
Southeast US
New York 14°
Orlando 2°
Boston 14°
Washington 13°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 16°
Nashville 21°
Minneapolis 16°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -11°
Detroit 24°
Denver -12°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 5°

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