February 14, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures climbed 16.2¢ Tuesday to $2.567 per million Btu, its second-highest closing price since the start of the month. While traders have tested the $2.60s repeatedly in the last week, the March contract has not settled above $2.60 all month. "Other than some limited cold in the forecast, there are not enough bullish drivers in the market for Nymex gas futures to garner much strength in prices," Gelber & Associates analysts said. "In a nutshell, there's simply too much gas floating around in the market, and this doesn't look to change anytime soon." Now eyes are turning toward the next season. Though Freeport LNG appears to be making steady progress toward a full restart, the amount of excess working gas stockpiles exiting the winter heating season could reach 1,900 Bcf, the analysts said, which "essentially mitigates a large percentage of returning Freeport LNG export volumes."

The 12-month strip climbed 9.4¢ to $3.294; the 2024 strip edged 2.4¢ higher to $3.640 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwes E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 50¢ to $2.01. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that remained at $2.42. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 12¢ to average $1.94, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 51¢ to average $2.09. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 42¢ to average $1.96. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 93¢ to $4.81, SoCal Citygate declined $1.05 to average $5.20 and Northwest Sumas lost $1.09 to average $4.50. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 7¢ to $2.02 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The costs to complete the coastal GasLink Pipeline in British Columbia, which are already double original estimates, could rise even higher if construction continues well into next year, operator TC Energy said Tuesday. The Canadian pipeline giant said that it was continuing to target “mechanical completion” by the end of 2023, with commissioning and restoration work continuing into 2024 and 2025. But a comprehensive cost and schedule risk analysis that estimated the project’s cost at $14.5 billion also found that an “extension of construction well into 2024” would increase costs by another $1.2 billion. The 415-mile, 2.1 billion cubic feet per day cross-province pipeline, which is now 84% complete, is a crucial connection between the gas fields of northern British Columbia and the LNG Canada export project on the coast. LNG Canada's first phase is expected to come online in 2025.
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha HubWestcoast Station 2Cheyenne HubStanfieldTenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinNW SumasSoCal Border-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha HubWestcoast Station 2Cheyenne HubStanfieldTenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinNW SumasSoCal Border
Note: Feb 14' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (46), down (34).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 14, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 15, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasNatural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasNatural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 14, '23
Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 13 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 14 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 13 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
489553537632618643570571665Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13Feb 14(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13Feb 14NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
7 Feb 23 8 Feb 23 9 Feb 2310 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 2313 Feb 234000600080001000012000140001600018000 7 Feb 23 8 Feb 23 9 Feb 2310 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 2313 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)1150120012501300135014001450150015501600165017001750 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2172262462882862422472228 February9 February10 February11 February12 February13 February14 February15 February0501001502002503003508 February9 February10 February11 February12 February13 February14 February15 FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 10°
Orlando -4°
Boston 13°
Washington 11°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville 14°
Minneapolis 29°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 16°
Denver 8°
Austin 19°
Atlanta 6°
Southeast US
New York 10°
Orlando -4°
Boston 13°
Washington 11°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville 14°
Minneapolis 29°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 16°
Denver 8°
Austin 19°
Atlanta 6°

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