February 13, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures fell 10.9¢ Monday to $2.405 per million Btu as demand remains anemic in what should be the coldest part of the winter heating season. Traders are closely watching the progress of Freeport LNG's restart, and the export facility's full return to service remains contingent on additional regulatory approvals. Once it's operating at capacity, Freeport will pull more than 2 billion cubic feet per day of gas from the domestic market. But US shale gas production is expected to continue setting new records through the rest of winter, with production growth dwarfing Freeport's liquefaction capacity.

The 12-month strip declined 7.8¢ to $3.199; the 2024 strip skidded 1.6¢ lower to $3.161 (Futures contracts).

* * *

El Paso Bondad saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.05 to $5.86. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 5¢ at $2.42. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 0¢ to average $2.06, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 15¢ to average $2.60. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 25¢ to average $1.54. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 69¢ to $5.74, SoCal Citygate advanced 23¢ to average $6.25 and Northwest Sumas gained 63¢ to average $5.59. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 3¢ to $1.96 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US shale gas production to continue setting new records through the end of the winter. According to the EIA’s latest drilling productivity report, production at the nation’s seven largest shale plays will have grown 426 million cubic feet per day in March to reach 96.59 billion cubic feet per day, up 8.52 Bcf/d year over year. The Haynesville Shale, Permian Basin and Appalachia account for the lion’s share of that growth. In the Haynesville, the EIA expects production will grow 131.2 MMcf/d to reach 16.6 Bcf/d, up 2.14 Bcf/d from last March. In the Permian, the EIA estimates production will grow nearly 97 MMcf/d to reach 22.21 Bcf/d, up 1.67 Bcf/d from a year ago. The agency expects Appalachian production will have grown 79.7 MMcf/d to 35.1 Bcf/d, up 1.19 Bcf/d year over year. The EIA bases its production estimates on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimated drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing oil and gas wells.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso BondadWaha HubEl Paso PermianNW RockiesWhite River HubIroquoisCenterPoint EastHouston Ship ChannelTransco Zone 5Algonquin-5%0%5%10%15%20%El Paso BondadWaha HubEl Paso PermianNW RockiesWhite River HubIroquoisCenterPoint EastHouston Ship ChannelTransco Zone 5Algonquin
Note: Feb 13' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (38), down (37).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 13, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 14, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 13, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 10 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 13 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 10 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
702489553537632618643570571Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
6 Feb 23 7 Feb 23 8 Feb 23 9 Feb 2310 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 234000600080001000012000140001600018000 6 Feb 23 7 Feb 23 8 Feb 23 9 Feb 2310 Feb 2311 Feb 2312 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)1100120013001400150016001700 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2572172262462882862572527February8February9February10February11February12February13February14February0501001502002503003507February8February9February10February11February12February13February14FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 10°
Orlando -13°
Boston 9°
Washington 8°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 12°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 27°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas 0°
Detroit 19°
Denver 15°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 0°
Southeast US
New York 10°
Orlando -13°
Boston 9°
Washington 8°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 12°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 27°
Los Angeles -5°
Las Vegas 0°
Detroit 19°
Denver 15°
Austin 13°
Atlanta 0°

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