February 10, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures climbed 8.4¢ Friday to settle at $2.514 per million Btu, capping off a two-day 11.8¢ rally, as long-term weather forecasts turned colder. With dry gas production pegged at 98.8 billion cubic feet per day in the week to Feb. 8 — up 8 Bcf/d year over year and climbing back toward 100 Bcf/d — analysts say it will take a sharp cut in drilling activity, especially in the Haynesville Shale, as well as cold weather support and the resumption of 2 Bcf/d of exports from Freeport LNG to tighten the market enough for a sustained push above $3 before the winter is out.

The 12-month strip climbed 8.3¢ to $3.277; the 2024 strip edged 2.2¢ higher to $3.632 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Waha Hub saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 58¢ to $1.29. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 3¢ at $2.37. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin advanced 41¢ to average $2.75. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 58¢ to average $1.29. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 11¢ to $5.05, SoCal Citygate advanced 60¢ to average $6.02 and Northwest Sumas gained 34¢ to average $4.96. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 1¢ to $1.93 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US rig count climbed two to 761 last week, up 126 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs fell eight to 150, up 32 from a year ago, while oil rigs climbed 10 to 609, up 93 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 51 rigs to 352, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 17 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 16 at 71 (Rig counts).

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinSoCal CitygateIroquoisNW SumasKaty HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso PermianTranswes E of ThoreauWaha Hub-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinSoCal CitygateIroquoisNW SumasKaty HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso PermianTranswes E of ThoreauWaha Hub
Note: Feb 10' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (37), down (37).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 10, 2023 / Flow Dates: Feb. 11-13, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 10, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 9 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Feb 10 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 10 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 9 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
996890759702489553537632618Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9Feb 10NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 23 7 Feb 23 8 Feb 23 9 Feb 234000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000260002800030000 3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 23 7 Feb 23 8 Feb 23 9 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)800900100011001200130014001500160017001800 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500031 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240031 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb 9 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
4162812522572172262492984February5February6February7February8February9February10February11February0501001502002503003504004504February5February6February7February8February9February10February11FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 7°
Boston 15°
Washington 17°
Seattle 9°
Philadelphia 18°
Nashville -2°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 6°
Las Vegas -10°
Detroit 10°
Denver 11°
Austin 1°
Atlanta 2°
Southeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 7°
Boston 15°
Washington 17°
Seattle 9°
Philadelphia 18°
Nashville -2°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 6°
Las Vegas -10°
Detroit 10°
Denver 11°
Austin 1°
Atlanta 2°

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