February 9, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures climbed just 3.4¢ Thursday to $2.43 per million Btu despite a reported withdrawal from US working gas stockpiles that was 22 billion cubic feet above consensus and well above the five-year average. “There’s no doubt that the winter has produced a reasonably good frequency of Polar-chilled air, which at times has resulted in record-setting cold temperatures in portions of the nation. However, the frigid air masses have been so short-lived that they have not had any sort of meaningful impact on natural gas storage levels,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “Unless the market can see sustainable cold, any price rallies will likely be seen as short-term profit-taking opportunities.”

The 12-month strip slipped 0.2¢ to $3.194; the 2024 strip fell 2.7¢ to $3.610 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Tenn Gas Zone 6 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 53¢ to $2.27. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 1¢ at $2.40. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 6¢ to average $2.05, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 17¢ to average $2.34. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 5¢ to average $1.87. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 7¢ to $4.94, SoCal Citygate advanced 19¢ to average $5.43 and Northwest Sumas gained 9¢ to average $4.62. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 6¢ to $1.94 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 217 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ended Feb. 3, decreasing net working gas inventories to 2,366 Bcf. This week's draw compares with a year-ago pull of 228 Bcf and the five-year average of 171 Bcf. The surplus to the five-year average fell to 117 Bcf, or 5.2%. The surplus to last year climbed to 233 Bcf, or 10.9%. Next week's data is expected to show a 115 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 166 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

Some oil-field services executives believe US natural gas drilling could slow as gas prices have fallen sharply since the start of the year. “In the near term we expect some rigs in gas basins outside the Northeast will be let go while other rigs are reactivated to go to work in the oil basins,” Andy Hendricks, Patterson-UTI's CEO, said on an earnings call Thursday. He said the pullback is likely occurring in the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and Louisiana as well as in South Texas or Oklahoma. Nabors CFO William Restrepo also said he was picking up on a softening of gas drilling demand during his own company’s earnings call Wednesday. “We did see some weakness in gas markets with multiple rigs returned by smaller players,” Restrepo said, adding that all of his company’s rigs in the Northeast remained at work.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso - South MainlineEl Paso BondadPG&E SouthEl Paso San JuanIroquois Zone 2AlgonquinIroquoisWestcoast Station 2Tenn Gas Zone 6-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso - South MainlineEl Paso BondadPG&E SouthEl Paso San JuanIroquois Zone 2AlgonquinIroquoisWestcoast Station 2Tenn Gas Zone 6
Note: Feb 9' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (34), down (45).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 9, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 10, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 9, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 8 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Feb 9, '23
50%59%51%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 9 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 8 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
813996890759702489553537632Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8Feb 9NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
2 Feb 23 3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 23 7 Feb 23 8 Feb 2350001000015000200002500030000 2 Feb 23 3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 23 7 Feb 23 8 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150016001700180031 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500030 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220030 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
4284162812522572172272463February4February5February6February7February8February9February10February0501001502002503003504004503February4February5February6February7February8February9February10FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 6°
Boston 13°
Washington 19°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 14°
Nashville 14°
Minneapolis 18°
Los Angeles 7°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 22°
Denver -1°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 11°
Southeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 6°
Boston 13°
Washington 19°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 14°
Nashville 14°
Minneapolis 18°
Los Angeles 7°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit 22°
Denver -1°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 11°

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