February 8, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures sank 18.8¢ Wednesday to settle at $2.396 per million Btu, the lowest level for the prompt month since December 2020. While last week's winter storm could lead the next weekly storage report to show a near 200 billion cubic foot pull from working gas inventories, that would still leave storage above the historical average. With production rebounding toward the 100 Bcf/d level, persisting mild temperatures could lead that surplus to grow in the coming weeks. "At this juncture, upside action in Nymex front-month gas futures will be restrained unless Old Man Winter can pull some tricks out of his bag," Gelber & Associates analysts said.

The 12-month strip dropped 15.4¢ to $3.196; the 2024 strip fell 11¢ to $3.636 (Futures contracts).

* * *

NW Rockies saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 95¢ to $4.75. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 6¢ at $2.41. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 31¢ to average $2.11, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 36¢ to average $2.51. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 12¢ to average $1.92. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 93¢ to $4.86, SoCal Citygate advanced 45¢ to average $5.23 and Northwest Sumas gained 71¢ to average $4.53. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 5¢ to $2.00 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating a 195 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Feb. 3 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,388 Bcf, about 6.2% above the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 228 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 171 Bcf. Last week, a winter storm brought heating degree days to 219, above the 191 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Feb. 10 are for a 115 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 166 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 195 Bcf.

* * *

New England relied more heavily on coal and oil-fired generation to meet electricity demand during last week's winter storm, according to the US Energy Information Administration. As hourly electricity demand peaked at 19,487 megawatts at 7 p.m. ET Feb. 3 and reached 19,287 MW the following evening, the region called on more than 5,000 MW of oil-fired capacity as well as the region's last remaining coal-fired power plant. "These plants ran during the entire cold weather event," the EIA said. "Output from natural gas-fired plants declined because the region's limited natural gas pipeline capacity was increasingly used to supply natural gas to residential and commercial heating customers, making less natural gas available for power plants." On a typical winter day, New England electricity demand peaks at around 16,000 MW before subsiding below 14,000 MW overnight, the EIA said.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
NW RockiesMalinQuestarKern River / OpalWhite River HubTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsAlgonquinTransco Z6 - NYWestcoast Station 2Tenn Gas Zone 6-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%NW RockiesMalinQuestarKern River / OpalWhite River HubTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsAlgonquinTransco Z6 - NYWestcoast Station 2Tenn Gas Zone 6
Note: Feb 8' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (49), down (27).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 8, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 9, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso Natural GasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.Northwest PipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandle EasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 8, '23
Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24($/MMBtu)2.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar '23Apr '23May '23Jun '23Jul '23Aug '23Sep '23Oct '23Nov '23Dec '23Jan '24Feb '24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 7 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 8 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 7 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
602813996890759702489553537Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7Feb 8NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
1 Feb 23 2 Feb 23 3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 23 7 Feb 2350001000015000200002500030000 1 Feb 23 2 Feb 23 3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 23 7 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150016001700180030 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500029 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220029 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
3884284162812522572332282 February3 February4 February5 February6 February7 February8 February9 February0501001502002503003504004502 February3 February4 February5 February6 February7 February8 February9 FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 4°
Boston 10°
Washington 15°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 12°
Nashville 21°
Minneapolis 25°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 12°
Denver 6°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 14°
Southeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 4°
Boston 10°
Washington 15°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 12°
Nashville 21°
Minneapolis 25°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 12°
Denver 6°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 14°

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