February 7, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures climbed 12.7¢ Tuesday to $2.584 per million Btu, as long-term forecasts suggest another bout of cold air could overspread the US in late February/early March. Despite the two-day, 17.4¢ run higher, "it's a bit too soon to suggest that Nymex gas futures prices have bottomed," Gelber & Associates analysts warned. "If the major weather forecast models show signs of backpedaling ..., or if production rises back above 100 Bcf/d, or if volumes to Freeport LNG are interruptedm, Nymex gas futures could test new lows or possible sink to the $2.00/MMBtu area."

The 12-month strip jumped 13.3¢ to $3.350; the 2024 strip rose 14.1¢ to $3.747 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwes E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 62¢ to $1.97. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 16¢ at $2.35. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 23¢ to average $2.42, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 37¢ to average $2.87. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 53¢ to average $1.80. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 13¢ to $3.93, SoCal Citygate advanced 31¢ to average $4.79 and Northwest Sumas gained 70¢ to average $3.82. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 11¢ to $2.05 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) slashed its Henry Hub spot price forecast through 2024 "as a result of significantly warmer-than-normal weather in January" that allowed storage inventories to climb above the five-year average. Now the EIA expects working gas stockpiles will exit the winter heating season 16% above the five-year average at over 1.8 trillion cubic feet. Last month, the EIA had expected first-quarter Henry Hub spot prices would average $4.99/MMBtu. However, the expected cold weather and the resumption of exports from Freeport LNG that served as the basis for that forecast never materialized. Now, the EIA expects first-quarter prices to average $3.13/MMBtu, down 37.4% from the prior outlook. For 2023, it expects prices will average $3.40/MMBtu, 30.5% below the prior month's forecast and 46.9% below the 2022 average. In 2024, the EIA expects Henry Hub spot prices will climb 18.7% to average $4.04/MMBtu, down 15.8% from the prior outlook.

* * *

Price notice: Due to a revision by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing for the Feb. 3, 2023, trade day as follows:

At NW Rockies, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.70; High: $3.80; Average: $3.39; Volume: 52,841; Deals: 11.

At Questar, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.30; High: $2.30; Average: $2.30; Volume: 2,800; Deals: 1.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso PermianEl Paso San JuanNW Sumas White River HubIroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Transwes E of ThoreauWaha HubEl Paso PermianEl Paso San JuanNW Sumas White River HubIroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6
Note: Feb 7' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (77), down (4).

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 7, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 6 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 7 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 6 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
338602813996890759702489553Jan 30Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Jan 30Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6Feb 7NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
31 Jan 23 1 Feb 23 2 Feb 23 3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 2305000100001500020000250003000035000400004500031 Jan 23 1 Feb 23 2 Feb 23 3 Feb 23 4 Feb 23 5 Feb 23 6 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)8009001000110012001300140015001600170029 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500028 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)800100012001400160018002000220028 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 6 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
4063884284162812522622261February2February3February4February5February6February7February8February0501001502002503003504004501February2February3February4February5February6February7February8FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -1°
Orlando -2°
Boston -1°
Washington 3°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 16°
Minneapolis 24°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 11°
Denver 9°
Austin 18°
Atlanta 2°
Southeast US
New York -1°
Orlando -2°
Boston -1°
Washington 3°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 16°
Minneapolis 24°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 11°
Denver 9°
Austin 18°
Atlanta 2°

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