February 6, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures climbed 4.7¢ Monday to $2.457 per million Btu, roughly offsetting last Friday’s 4.6¢ loss. “Natural gas futures continue to be bearishly influenced by a persistently moderate temperature outlook,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. “Even when the US does feature intense cold, as was observed in mid-to-late December and then again late last week ... , the cold events have been short-lived and rapidly replaced by widespread mild temperatures.” While gas futures “are fundamentally and technically undervalued and oversold,” traders are eyeing the possibility of another bout of cold weather back half of the month and monitoring progress of Freeport LNG’s restart. If both factors lift demand, “it could set the state for a short-squeeze that could send Nymex natural gas futures back up to the mid-$2.70/MMBtu or even higher in a relatively short period of time,” G&A said.

The 12-month strip climbed 1.2¢ to $3.217; the 2024 strip fell 2.7¢ to $3.606 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Iroquois Zone 2 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $5.35 to $2.92. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 21¢ at $2.19. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 81¢ to average $2.19, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $4.46 to average $3.24. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 22¢ to average $1.26. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 10¢ to $3.80, SoCal Citygate advanced 29¢ to average $4.48 and Northwest Sumas lost 26¢ to average $3.12. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 3¢ to $1.94 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

More than half of all new US power generation capacity this year will be solar, with natural gas comprising 14%, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Monday. Of the 54.5 gigawatts of new utility-scale capacity companies plan to build in 2023, 29.1 GW (54%) will be powered by the sun, with Texas and California comprising 41% of that, the EIA said. Battery storage will account for 9.4 GW (17%) of new additions, while gas will make up 7.5 GW (14%), wind 6 GW (11%) and nuclear 2.2 GW (4%). While utility-scale solar capacity has been rising rapidly since 2010, additions declined 23% last year due to supply chain disruptions and other pandemic-related challenges. “We expect that some of those delayed 2022 projects will begin operating in 2023,” the EIA said. Meanwhile, the two largest gas plants expected to come online in 2023 are the 1,836-megawatt Guernsey Power Station in Ohio and the 1,214-MW CPV Three Rivers Energy Center in Illinois.

* * *

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Monday urged the federal government to investigate the recent natural gas price spike affecting millions of customers in his state and across the Western US. Newsom asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in a letter to “immediately focus its investigatory resources on assessing whether market manipulation, anticompetitive behavior, or other anomalous activities are driving these ongoing elevated prices in the Western gas markets.” Residential and commercial customers have been receiving extraordinary high gas and electricity bills in recent weeks following a late-autumn spike in wholesale gas prices that has since subsided. California regulators last week voted to speed up a rebate program to offset some of that burden.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso San JuanWhite River HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadNW RockiesTransco Zone 5IroquoisAlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%El Paso San JuanWhite River HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadNW RockiesTransco Zone 5IroquoisAlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2
Note: Feb 6' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (19), down (62).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 6, 2023 / Flow Date: Feb. 7, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdPanhandleEasternPipeline Co.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 6, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.533.544.55Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 3 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 6 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 3 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
409338602813996890759702489Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6(MMcf/d)0200400600800100012001400Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3Feb 4Feb 5Feb 6NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
28 Jan 2329 Jan 2330 Jan 2331 Jan 23 1 Feb 23 2 Feb 23 3 Feb 2305000100001500020000250003000035000400004500028 Jan 2329 Jan 2330 Jan 2331 Jan 23 1 Feb 23 2 Feb 23 3 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)7008009001000110012001300140015001600170028 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)5001000150020002500300035004000450027 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240027 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
40940638842841628126126331January1February2February3February4February5February6February7February05010015020025030035040045031January1February2February3February4February5February6February7FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -3°
Boston 10°
Washington 5°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 18°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 0°
Detroit 7°
Denver 7°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 0°
Southeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -3°
Boston 10°
Washington 5°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 7°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 18°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 0°
Detroit 7°
Denver 7°
Austin 11°
Atlanta 0°

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