February 3, 2023

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

March gas futures fell another 4.6¢ Friday to a 25-month low of $2.410/MMBtu as traders looked past the brief shot of cold air that sent New England cash prices trading above $200 a day earlier. Selling pressure was driven in part by the weather outlook for “mild to moderate conditions for the central and eastern regions of the US through at least mid-February,” Gelber & Associates (G&A) analysts noted Friday. How close the market is to the bottom depends on how quickly Freeport LNG can resume its 2 Bcf/d of exports, as well as how severely the latest bout of winter weather affected production. “Similar to the late December cold blast that temporarily caused a rash of well freeze-offs, production will likely return quickly, but by then it may be that Freeport LNG volumes may start advancing,” G&A said. “Over the course of the next few weeks, it’s not out of the question that imbalances may show even greater signs of tightening.”

The 12-month strip shed 3¢ to land at $3.204; the 2024 strip slipped 1.6¢ to $3.633 (Futures contracts).

* * *

The expected retreat of Arctic temperatures over the course of the weekend drove Northeast cash prices lower, with Iroquois Zone 2 seeing the most significant price move of the day, falling $139.38 to $8.27. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 26¢ at $2.40. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down $20.31 to average $3.00, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $64.72 to average $7.70. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 76¢ to average $1.48. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 94¢ to $3.71, SoCal Citygate declined $1.83 to average $4.19 and Northwest Sumas lost 80¢ to average $3.38. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 19¢ to $1.91 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

High gas prices and snarled pipelines could drive gas-to-oil switching in the power sector as a winter storm makes its way across New England this weekend. Pipelines serving the region, including Tennessee Gas Pipeline, Iroquois Gas Transmission, and Algonquin Gas Transmission have instituted operational flow orders and admonished generators to file and adhere closely to gas burn plans, warning generators they'd have little flexibility as the weather passes. Even so, ISO New England, the region’s grid operator, said Thursday it expected to have sufficient generation to meet projected power demand of just above 19,000 MW on Friday. “Notably, heading into the cold weather this weekend, the region’s supply of fuel oil are at their highest levels of the season,” the ISO said. “The expected short duration of the cold weather limits the potential for strain on the region’s stored fuel supplies, including LNG.”


* * *

The US rig count dropped 12 to 759 last week, up 146 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs fell two to 158, up 42 from a year ago, while oil rigs fell ten to 599, up 102 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 60 rigs to 354, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 22 to 72. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 15 at 69 (Rig counts).
Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
     Tenn Gas Zone 6Transco Z6 - NYAlgonquinIroquoisIroquois Zone 2-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%     Tenn Gas Zone 6Transco Z6 - NYAlgonquinIroquoisIroquois Zone 2
Note: Feb 3' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (0), down (81).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Feb. 3, 2023 / Flow Dates: Feb. 4-6, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandleEastern PipelineCo.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdPanhandleEastern PipelineCo.Tennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Feb 3, '23
Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24($/MMBtu)2.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.8Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24Feb'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Feb 2 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Feb 3 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Feb 3 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Feb 2 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
183178312409338602813996890Jan 26Jan 27Jan 28Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3(MMcf/d)01002003004005006007008009001000Jan 26Jan 27Jan 28Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
27 Jan 2328 Jan 2329 Jan 2330 Jan 2331 Jan 23 1 Feb 23 2 Feb 2305000100001500020000250003000035000400004500027 Jan 2328 Jan 2329 Jan 2330 Jan 2331 Jan 23 1 Feb 23 2 Feb 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
25 Jan26 Jan27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb(MW)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500160025 Jan26 Jan27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 FebCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
24 Jan25 Jan26 Jan27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000(MMcf/d)5001000150020002500300035004000450024 Jan25 Jan26 Jan27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 FebWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
24 Jan25 Jan26 Jan27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240024 Jan25 Jan26 Jan27 Jan28 Jan29 Jan30 Jan31 Jan 1 Feb 2 FebPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
33535038740940638842740828January29January30January31January1February2February3February4February05010015020025030035040045028January29January30January31January1February2February3February4FebruaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -10°
Orlando 7°
Boston -16°
Washington -9°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia -7°
Nashville -13°
Minneapolis -24°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit -18°
Denver 4°
Austin -11°
Atlanta -7°
Southeast US
New York -10°
Orlando 7°
Boston -16°
Washington -9°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia -7°
Nashville -13°
Minneapolis -24°
Los Angeles 3°
Las Vegas -4°
Detroit -18°
Denver 4°
Austin -11°
Atlanta -7°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com