February 1, 2023

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

US Remains Net Exporter Without SPR Sales

  • The US has reported average net exports of 1.17 million b/d of both crude and petroleum products in January-November.
  • Last year's support of 600,000 b/d from strategic oil reserves will be removed from the equation in 2023.
  • US demand is once again higher than expected when compared to weekly data.

The US is set to remain a large net oil exporter in 2023 even without the support of 222 million barrels of sales from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). Last year, net exports were 1.17 million barrels per day through November, latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show.

By contrast, in 2023, fuel supply will lose the infusion of 600,000 b/d of SPR sales.

Nevertheless, the US will see liquids production grow around 1.2 million b/d, Energy Intelligence reckons, which far outstrips expected consumption growth of 200,000 b/d. The surplus will more than compensate for the loss of SPR barrels.

Export Ramifications

The net export position can strengthen the country’s ambition to become a more active manager of global market balances through the buying and selling of crude oil for the SPR.

Last year, the administration of President Joseph Biden said it was in favor of buying crude if it were in the $67.50-$72 price band and selling it at a higher price.

For 2023, congressionally mandated sales of around 26 million bbl are on the agenda. Politicians are getting involved in shaping plans to use the SPR more as a market management tool.

The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly for November, released on Jan. 31, showed that net crude exports were 1.6 million b/d in November. The US was a net importer of 1.3 million b/d of Opec oil but a net exporter of 2.9 million b/d to non-Opec countries.

The nation bought 44% of its 6.24 million b/d of imported crude oil from Canada, for a total of 3.75 million b/d. Mexico supplied 490,000 b/d, Saudi Arabia 440,000 b/d, and Iraq 265,000 b/d. As before, Saudi Arabia and Iraq supplied a combined 200,000 b/d of fuel oil and heavy gasoil, filling the gap from the US ban on Russian oil imports since the invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago.

Improving Demand

The monthly data also showed that US oil consumption in November was better than weekly data had indicated. The influential weekly petroleum numbers of the EIA had shown expected demand growth of 20.23 million b/d, while the more more precise monthly data put oil consumption at 20.59 million b/d — an upward revision of 362,000 b/d.

Weekly data was also significantly lower for both both gasoline and diesel, the key fuels that fuel sentiment. Gasoline was 248,000 b/d higher in the monthly report and diesel 275,000 b/d higher.

In the April-November period, monthly data has been an average 475,000 b/d better than weekly data.

Critics think that trend will continue in 2023. Some commentators think the weekly reported demand data of 19.3 million b/d so far in 2023 is too low. Weekly January data in 2022 was initially seen at 21.2 million b/d and later adjusted down 468,000 b/d in the PSM. If these adjustments would apply this year, current US oil demand would still be 1 million b/d lower than last year. Around 750,000 b/d of the drop is in propane, thanks to milder winter temperature, on average. Propane demand is unimportant for market sentiment.

US Crude Oil Imports, November 2022
CanadaMexicoSaudi ArabiaIraqColombiaBrazilEcuadorGrand Total
('000 b/d)Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21
Marathon511330493955-112---50-71-858394
Phillips 6649849675794450---28----833869
Chevron1616956667747880524517337249565476
BP374512--12-----2122--427535
PBF Energy9199503511189---1664411624389368
Exxon Mobil366419------------366419
Flint Hills353260------------353260
Houston Refining3271374932---10066----215186
Valero8-97178--6022--3236--213340
Cenovus Energy191311------------191311
Saudi Aramco4166--119254--------160320
HF SINCLAIR REFG & MKTG LLC141-------------141-
Monroe Energy-39------------126133
PDV Midwest Refining122178------------122178
Tidal Energy116101------------116101
Top 152,8612,899403447440466250101152156184132159735,0784,891
Total Companies3,7553,9384905064405092651652051891841531591176,2436,334
Total Imports3,7553,9384905064405092651652051891841531591176,2436,334
US Crude Exports, November 2022
MonthlyMonthlyAvg.Avg.
('000 b/d)Nov'22Nov'2120212020
All Destinations4,0423,1372,9633,206
India695578420281
Netherlands390266286298
Korea355336349269
Canada347398311420
United Kingdom251227233247
China213728256481
Singapore183014391
Italy176124114140
Taiwan16449145158
Switzerland1520144
Spain118248663
France997310281
Germany937278101
Thailand741053776
Uruguay5401717
Dominican Republic36172510
Australia2501329
Norway2424386
Peru24241920
Denmark23243031
Ireland22403943
Brazil19295334
Colombia18181915
Nicaragua101299
Belgium1015
Lithuania04926

US Petroleum Product Imports, November 2022
CanadaMexicoSouth KoreaIraqSaudi ArabiaNetherlandsSpainGrand Total
('000 b/d)Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21
Valero57535211-1948-5525--4-317350
Exxon Mobil563435--61-135348169265226
BP3107-30---12-101110-19158
Irving Oil165208------------165208
Shell516--------18363-126132
Chevron--313312---18-----10082
Phillips 66510123115----412-8450
Saudi Aramco4--7--1-11--102-5221
Trafigura13-------5-43-47110
Vitol51--8-3-1-1-424484
Atlantic Trading11---------207-3517
Petrogas Energy3230------------3230
Plains3020------------3020
Hartree Partners----11-----2---301
Citgo----------11---2718
Top 15324356136907224113-1113482-50111,5461,407
Total Companies548598167194150104115-11246868375342,0782,138
Total Imports548599167194150106--11246868375342,0782,141
US Petroleum Product Imports, November 2022
CanadaMexicoSouth KoreaIraqSaudi ArabiaNetherlandsSpainGrand Total
('000 b/d)Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21Nov '22Nov '21
Motor Gasoline1301618-197--24-39645520569604
Other Oils2612886863109-734117115-546507
Middle Distillates135136--334----1815-6281383
Residual Fuel Oil163571126--6-1558--7250222
LPG/Chemicals182179------------191182
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel78--9276--------144113
Asphalt4257----------5-4758
Lubricants1010-0015--1-43-13254
Fuel Ethanol---------17
Petroleum Coke11------------117
Total Companies548598167194150104115-11246868375342,0782,138
Total Imports548599167194150106--11246868375342,0782,141
US Petroleum Product Exports, November 2022
Total ProductsTotal ProductsNGLsNGLsMogasMogasJet KeroJet KeroDistillatesDistillatesResidsResidsPet CokePet CokeOtherOther
('000 b/d)Nov'22Nov'21Nov'22Nov'21Nov'22Nov'21Nov'22Nov'21Nov'22Nov'21Nov'22Nov'21Nov'22Nov'21Nov'22Nov'21
All Destinations5,8556,0492,4012,4991,0511,0401551491,1721,12714286526512407636
Mexico1,0171,145169183463500204924629021773314575
Canada5205662752582895293210202235213013696
Japan5995625214910000000039473824
China419426291362000000001276411
Brazil27432417194419041031590066304593
Indonesia7911779116000000000000
India184232127980000001054115219
Korea14317811811201000090100765
Chile243230373560551712941253000063
Peru15310691733149495610000810
Netherlands181127102850000424230091529
Dominican Republic101105404529224421180061213
Panama1279583312117662538110010
Guatemala10311414145255553239000001
Ecuador18912852184140009567000013
Colombia17815452737440472000004957
Honduras56831913121827132700101701
Costa Rica6059452031462515007012
Spain385436290000080011117
Egypt406231620000000010000
France26332428000000001421
Morocco7359634600000000101300
Singapore237503900002225040007
El Salvador39348121511101410000000
United Kingdom841012567112052200000413
Bahama Islands1646012115292228618500015
Other7408213273383654391817015730139312945112

John van Schaik, New York