January 25, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures sank 19.1¢ Monday to $3.067 per million Btu, with traders pushing the contract below $3 after the session's afternoon close. Cold temperatures are forecasts to descend on the country, but "there is some skepticism among gas market players that the Siberian airmass will extend far enough eastward to the major metropolitan areas of the Eastern Seaboard, which would be required to guarantee ample gas storage draws will be on the table in early February," Gelber & Associates said. The latest forecasts "featured a revision to the outlook that would usher in less cold conditions from the last few days of January until Feb. 4, while colder temperatures are still in focus for the period of Feb. 5-8." Until LNG exports resume via Freeport and cold weather materializes, "sellers may continue to pressure prices," the analysts said.

The 12-month strip fell 11.6¢ to $3.411; the 2024 strip was off 3.7¢ at $3.888 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transco Zone 5 saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.88 to $5.38. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 26¢ at $3.09. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin advanced 31¢ to average $4.22. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 37¢ to average $2.45. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $2.94 to $14.96, SoCal Citygate declined $2.07 to average $16.88 and Northwest Sumas lost $2.69 to average $14.48. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 16¢ to $2.49 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating an unusually small 82 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Jan. 20 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,738 Bcf, about 5.3% above the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 217 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 185 Bcf. Last week, mild temperatures brought heating degree days to 154, sharply below the 196 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Jan. 27 are for a 138 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 181 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 261 Bcf.

* * *

The US Coast Guard has approved a risk analysis study completed by Freeport LNG, clearing one of the regulatory hurdles that stood in the way of the resumption of exports from the Texas facility. Freeport delivered the Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study to the Coast Guard last November. US Coast Guard Captain K.M. Donohue said in a Monday letter to Freeport that his staff determined that the HAZOP “addresses all requirements” of Captain of the Port Order 2022-0074. He said Freeport will be allowed to begin the planned Phase 0, Phase I and Phase II partial operations as described in the HAZOP following satisfactory completion of requirements set out by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Freeport on Sunday requested permission from FERC to begin cooling the facility’s Loop 1 line and restart the associated boil off gas management system, a process that it said would take 11 days. In that request, it acknowledged returning liquefaction trains to operation, LNG circulation, and ship loading would require subsequent commission approvals.

* * *

Sempra Infrastructure has signed a long-term sale and purchase agreement with Poland’s PKN Orlen for LNG from Phase 1 of the planned Port Arthur export project on the Texas Gulf Coast. PKN Orlen has will purchase 1 million tons per year on a free-on-board (f.o.b.) basis for a 20-year term. With this deal, all 10.5 million tons/yr of long-term LNG offtake capacity of Phase 1 have been contracted under binding agreements, mostly by European companies. Sempra Infrastructure now expects to reach a final investment decision this quarter and start construction soon thereafter on Phase 1 "to help meet the increasing demand for LNG across Europe and the rest of the world,” said CEO Justin Bird.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transco Zone 5Tenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTetco M3MalinKern River / OpalTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianPG&E Citygate-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Transco Zone 5Tenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTetco M3MalinKern River / OpalTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianPG&E Citygate
Note: Jan 25' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (8), down (70).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 25, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 26, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC0510152025303540455055Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 25, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)2.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.2Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 24 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 25 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 24 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
504411264222245220163181190Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20Jan 21Jan 22Jan 23Jan 24Jan 25(MMcf/d)010020030040050060070080090010001100Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20Jan 21Jan 22Jan 23Jan 24Jan 25NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
18 Jan 2319 Jan 2320 Jan 2321 Jan 2322 Jan 2323 Jan 2324 Jan 237000800090001000011000120001300014000150001600018 Jan 2319 Jan 2320 Jan 2321 Jan 2322 Jan 2323 Jan 2324 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)90010001100120013001400150016 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000550015 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240015 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
27731334735533432930532119January20January21January22January23January24January25January26January05010015020025030035040019January20January21January22January23January24January25January26JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 8°
Orlando 14°
Boston 3°
Washington 10°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville 6°
Minneapolis 13°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 7°
Denver -9°
Austin -3°
Atlanta 4°
Southeast US
New York 8°
Orlando 14°
Boston 3°
Washington 10°
Seattle 2°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville 6°
Minneapolis 13°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 7°
Denver -9°
Austin -3°
Atlanta 4°

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