January 24, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures dropped 18.9¢ Tuesday to $3.258 per million Btu as traders took profits following Monday’s 27.3¢ rally. Forecasts for colder temperatures and news that Freeport LNG asked federal officials for permission to restart were the catalysts for that rally. Now markets are awaiting evidence of tightening. Freeport’s restart “would mitigate nearly half of the year-over-year gains in dry gas production volumes,” Gelber & Associates analysts noted Tuesday. “If the Arctic air comes into play, as currently touted by weather forecast models, and lingers into mid-[February] as some of the longer-range models are implying, it could set the stage for Nymex gas futures to test the $3.75/MMBtu to $4.00/MMBtu area in the relatively near term.”

The 12-month strip fell 13.8¢ to $3.527; the 2024 strip declined 9.4¢ to $3.925 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwes E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 64¢ to $3.03. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 7¢ at $3.35. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 37¢ to average $3.01, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 46¢ to average $3.91. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 29¢ to average $2.82. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $1.69 to $17.90, SoCal Citygate advanced $2.25 to average $18.95 and Northwest Sumas gained $1.74 to average $17.18. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 2¢ to $2.64 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Environmental groups asked the US Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit during Tuesday oral arguments to throw out a key water permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP). If the panel of judges decide to scrap the permit and send the decision back to regulators, it could add yet another delay to the project and push back MVP developers' planned timeline to complete the remaining 6% of the 303-mile pipeline in time for service this summer. The Sierra Club and nine other conservation groups argue the permit issued by the Virginia State Water Control Board violated the Clean Water Act. The suit is the latest in a series of regulatory and legal challenges that have beset the 2 billion cubic foot per day pipe, intended to ferry Appalachian gas production to markets in the southeast US.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianMalinEl Paso San JuanPG&E CitygateTetco M3Iroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTransco Z6 - NYTenn Gas Zone 6-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianMalinEl Paso San JuanPG&E CitygateTetco M3Iroquois Zone 2AlgonquinTransco Z6 - NYTenn Gas Zone 6
Note: Jan 24' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (39), down (36).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 24, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 25, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 24, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.4Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 23 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 24 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 23 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
397504411264222245220163181Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20Jan 21Jan 22Jan 23Jan 24(MMcf/d)010020030040050060070080090010001100Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20Jan 21Jan 22Jan 23Jan 24NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
17 Jan 2318 Jan 2319 Jan 2320 Jan 2321 Jan 2322 Jan 2323 Jan 2360007000800090001000011000120001300014000150001600017 Jan 2318 Jan 2319 Jan 2320 Jan 2321 Jan 2322 Jan 2323 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150015 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000550014 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240014 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
24427731334735533433431518January19January20January21January22January23January24January25January05010015020025030035040018January19January20January21January22January23January24January25JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 2°
Orlando -1°
Boston 1°
Washington 1°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis 8°
Los Angeles -4°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 7°
Denver -7°
Austin 2°
Atlanta -5°
Southeast US
New York 2°
Orlando -1°
Boston 1°
Washington 1°
Seattle -1°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis 8°
Los Angeles -4°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 7°
Denver -7°
Austin 2°
Atlanta -5°

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