January 23, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures jumped 27.3¢ Monday to $3.447 per million Btu after Freeport LNG asked US regulators for permission to resume some operations in preparation for the facility's full restart. Also lending support to prices were colder weather forecasts for the for the first week of February. "Not only will this bring several waves of bitterly cold air to the Lower 48 during the first week of February, which notably could spike heating demand, but it could also produce more gas well freeze-offs in Texas, Louisiana, and portions of the Appalachian region," Gelber & Associates analysts said. “Should the coming weather event verify, it may be that Friday’s close was the near-term low for prices, at least for the time being.”

The 12-month strip climbed 14¢ to $3.665; the 2024 strip edged 2.7¢ higher to $4.019 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwes E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.30 to $2.40. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 29¢ at $3.42. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York averaged $3.38, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 28¢ to average $4.37. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose $2.01 to average $2.53. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $2.07 to $16.21, SoCal Citygate advanced $1.94 to average $16.70 and Northwest Sumas gained $1.93 to average $15.43. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 2¢ to $2.66 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Freeport LNG has asked US regulators for permission to resume some operations in preparation for the facility’s eventual full restart. “Freeport has completed repairs to the Export Facility on Quintana Island, Texas, performed safety reviews, revised various procedures, implemented new safety systems and performed necessary training in order to safely begin to resume initial operations at its Export Facility. As such, Freeport respectfully requests authorization from FERC to commence cool down of its Loop 1 transfer piping and reinstate the facility’s boil off gas (BOG) management compressors and associated piping,” Freeport said in a Jan. 22 letter to FERC. “The cool down will be done slowly and methodically over a period of approximately 11 days to ensure that the temperature rate change does not exceed thermal shock tolerances.” Freeport, which asked for FERC to respond by Tuesday, added that it will provide daily, confidential progress updates to regulators once it begins the initial process. “Any authorization pursuant to this request will be limited to the cool down of this piping and reenergization of the BOG management system, and subsequent approvals will be necessary to commence Loop 1 LNG circulation and ship loading to Dock 1, as well as begin to return the liquefaction trains to operation,” Freeport acknowledged in the letter.


* * *

Abaxx Technologies announced Monday that a subsidiary, Abaxx Exchange, filed paperwork with Singapore regulators to list a set of physically settled LNG futures contracts on an exchange it is launching in the Southeast Asian country. If approved, the contracts will cover LNG trade in Northwest Europe, the North Asia-Pacific region, and the US Gulf Coast. Abaxx argued the lack of a waterborne LNG price benchmark particularly affects Europe, given the continent’s increased reliance on LNG to meet its energy needs. “Onshore gas price references cannot, by definition, reflect the dynamics of the international LNG market,” Abaxx said in a Jan. 17 whitepaper. “As evidenced during the maturation of today’s oil and onshore natural gas markets, reliable benchmark prices supported the financing and development of critical energy projects including exploration and production, pipelines, refineries, storage hubs and export/import capacity. The absence of an LNG benchmark has arguably deterred investors from participating as a result of the lack of a trusted forward price curve.” Abaxx Exchange is seeking final regulatory approvals as a Recognized Market Operator and Approved Clearing House from the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanTenn Gas Zone 6   Westcoast Station 2Transco Zone 5-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%1800%2000%2200%2400%Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha HubTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanTenn Gas Zone 6   Westcoast Station 2Transco Zone 5
Note: Jan 23' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (70), down (2).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 23, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 24, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 23, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.4Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 20 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 23 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 20 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
397397504411264222245220163Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20Jan 21Jan 22Jan 23(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20Jan 21Jan 22Jan 23NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
16 Jan 2317 Jan 2318 Jan 2319 Jan 2320 Jan 2321 Jan 2322 Jan 2360007000800090001000011000120001300014000150001600016 Jan 2317 Jan 2318 Jan 2319 Jan 2320 Jan 2321 Jan 2322 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500600700800900100011001200130014001500160014 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000550013 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240013 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
26124427731334735532834017January18January19January20January21January22January23January24January05010015020025030035040017January18January19January20January21January22January23January24JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 0°
Boston 5°
Washington 4°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville 1°
Minneapolis 7°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 4°
Denver -5°
Austin -1°
Atlanta -6°
Southeast US
New York 2°
Orlando 0°
Boston 5°
Washington 4°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 4°
Nashville 1°
Minneapolis 7°
Los Angeles -2°
Las Vegas -3°
Detroit 4°
Denver -5°
Austin -1°
Atlanta -6°

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