January 20, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures fell 10.1¢ Friday to $3.174 per million Btu, reaching a new 18-month low for the prompt-month contract. Season-to-date storage withdrawals have lagged the five-year average by 213 billion cubic feet. Through the rest of winter, weather will "play a large role in the bullishness or bearishness of Nymex gas futures prices," Gelber & Associates analysts said. "But without meaningful, extended cold periods in the longer-range forecasts, it sets up end-of-season gas storage to potentially land in notably bearish territory by Apr. 1." It would require at least another 200-plus Bcf storage this winter withdrawal "for gas market bulls to find any sort of upside traction in the near term."

The 12-month strip fell 6.6¢ to $3.525; the 2024 strip declined 2.2¢ to $3.992 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwes E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $1.90 to $0.10. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 20¢ at $3.12. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin declined $1.17 to average $4.09. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell $1.31 to average $0.52. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $1.03 to $14.14, SoCal Citygate declined $2.27 to average $14.76 and Northwest Sumas lost 77¢ to average $13.51. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 4¢ to $2.64 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Increased US power generation from new renewables capacity will reduce electricity produced from both natural gas and coal in 2023 and 2024, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week. The agency forecasts that new solar and wind projects coming online this year will raise their share of generation to 16%, up from 14% last year and 8% in 2018. In contrast, coal’s share is expected to fall from 20% in 2022 to 18% in 2023 and 17% in 2024, while gas’ share slips from 39% to 38% this year and 37% next year. “Based on planned additions reported to EIA, solar capacity will expand another 63 gigawatts (84%) by the end of 2024, which is consistent with its declining production costs and favorable tax credits,” the EIA said. “Much of the growth in solar capacity is in Texas and California, where natural gas has been the primary source of electricity.” It sees power from nuclear plants holding steady near 20% through the end of 2024.

* * *

The US rig count fell four to 771 last week, up 167 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs climbed six to 156, up 43 from a year ago, while oil rigs fell 10 to 613, up 122 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 62 rigs to 354, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 22 to 72. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 16 at 69 (Rig counts).

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transco Zone 5Houston Ship ChannelKaty HubTransco Station 30Carthage HubTenn Gas Zone 6DracutWaha HubEl Paso PermianTranswes E of Thoreau-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%Transco Zone 5Houston Ship ChannelKaty HubTransco Station 30Carthage HubTenn Gas Zone 6DracutWaha HubEl Paso PermianTranswes E of Thoreau
Note: Jan 20' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (51), down (25).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 20, 2023 / Flow Dates: Jan. 21-23, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEastern GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 20, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.4Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 19 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Jan 20 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 20 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 19 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
395402384397397504411264222Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
13 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 2317 Jan 2318 Jan 2319 Jan 234000500060007000800090001000011000120001300014000150001600013 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 2317 Jan 2318 Jan 2319 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)50060070080090010001100120013001400150011 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)5001000150020002500300035004000450050005500600010 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240010 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
35332729226124427731934014January15January16January17January18January19January20January21January05010015020025030035040014January15January16January17January18January19January20January21JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 13°
Boston 7°
Washington 11°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville 8°
Minneapolis 12°
Los Angeles -7°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 14°
Denver -13°
Austin 6°
Atlanta 6°
Southeast US
New York 10°
Orlando 13°
Boston 7°
Washington 11°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 11°
Nashville 8°
Minneapolis 12°
Los Angeles -7°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 14°
Denver -13°
Austin 6°
Atlanta 6°

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