January 19, 2023

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures declined another 3.6¢ Thursday to $3.275 per million Btu as working gas storage inventories flipped to a surplus to the five-year average. Meanwhile, uncertainty about the severity and duration of winter temperatures expected to descend on the US later in the month, as well as about Freeport LNG’s restart, loom over the market.

However, the 12-month strip climbed 3.7¢ to $3.591, while the 2024 strip edged 4.5¢ higher to $3.693 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Algonquin saw the most significant cash price move of the day, rising $1.95 to $5.26. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 22¢ at $2.93. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin advanced $1.95 to average $5.26. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 41¢ to average $1.84. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $4.42 to $15.17, SoCal Citygate declined $3.41 to average $17.03 and Northwest Sumas lost $4.06 to average $14.27. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 4¢ to $2.60 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported an 82 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Jan. 13, decreasing net working gas inventories to 2,820 Bcf. The draw compares with a year-ago draw of 203 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 156 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average flipped to a surplus of 53 Bcf, or 1.2%. The deficit to last year declined to 19 Bcf, or 0.7%. Next week's data is expected to show a 78 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 185 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

Chesapeake Energy has agreed to sell part of its operations in South Texas to private equity-owned WildFire Energy for $1.43 billion in cash. Chesapeake has been trying to heed calls by activist investor Kimmeridge Energy Management, which has pushed the Oklahoma City-based company to move away from oil drilling in favor of lower-cost natural gas production. "Today marks an important step on our path to exiting the Eagle Ford Shale as we focus our capital on the premium, rock, returns and runway of our Marcellus and Haynesville positions," Nick Dell'Osso, Chesapeake's CEO, said in a statement. WildFire, owned by buyout firms Warburg Pincus and Kayne Anderson, is acquiring Chesapeake's Brazos Valley operations that are located in the eastern part of the Eagle Ford. An initial payment of $1.2 billion will be supplemented by further annual contributions for the next four years.

* * *

US pipeline behemoth Kinder Morgan (KMI) announced a slate of leadership changes Wednesday as CEO Steve Kean announced his intention to transition out of his current role after eight years at the helm. KMI President Kim Dang will succeed Kean as CEO effective Aug. 1, while KMI Natural Gas Group President Tom Martin will step into Dang’s role. In a move announced last July, Midstream Gas Group President Sital Mody will move into Martin's post effective Feb. 1. Between Feb. 1 and Aug. 1, Martin will serve as executive vice president, working with the office of the chairman. Kean will remain on KMI’s board of directors. Dang’s tenure with KMI spans more than 20 years. Past roles include vice president of investor relations, treasurer and CFO. She has served on KMI’s board of directors since 2017 and became president in 2018.
Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2Tenn 800 So LA Z1Tetco M2SoCal BorderTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanPG&E CitygateNW RockiesEl Paso San Juan-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2Tenn 800 So LA Z1Tetco M2SoCal BorderTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanPG&E CitygateNW RockiesEl Paso San Juan
Note: Jan 19' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (28), down (50).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 19, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 20, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 19, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.4Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 18 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Jan 19, '23
60%68%61%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 19 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 18 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
445395402384397397504411264Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
12 Jan 2313 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 2317 Jan 2318 Jan 234000500060007000800090001000011000120001300014000150001600012 Jan 2313 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 2317 Jan 2318 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)50060070080090010001100120013001400150010 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
28135332729226124427331813January14January15January16January17January18January19January20January05010015020025030035013January14January15January16January17January18January19January20JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 7°
Orlando 9°
Boston 6°
Washington 10°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis 17°
Los Angeles -8°
Las Vegas -11°
Detroit 13°
Denver -9°
Austin 4°
Atlanta 14°
Southeast US
New York 7°
Orlando 9°
Boston 6°
Washington 10°
Seattle -4°
Philadelphia 9°
Nashville 15°
Minneapolis 17°
Los Angeles -8°
Las Vegas -11°
Detroit 13°
Denver -9°
Austin 4°
Atlanta 14°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com