January 18, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures plunged 27.5¢ Wednesday to $3.311 per million Btu amid expectations of a pair of much weaker than usual storage withdrawals in the coming weeks. A recovery in prices to above $3.80 depends on the early resumption of exports from Freeport LNG and "most especially, the looming winter temperatures forecast," Gelber & Associates (G&A) analysts said. On the former, Freeport began to ramp up its feedgas intake over the weekend, but there is mounting skepticism that it will be able to resume operations even in February. On the weather outlook, there remains uncertainty about whether the coming cold snap will be as severe as the arctic air that blanketed much of the US in late December.

The 12-month strip fell 12.2¢ to $3.553; the 2024 strip slipped 5.9¢ to $3.969 (Futures contracts).

* * *

El Paso Permian saw the most significant price move of the day, rising 58¢ to $2.36. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 29¢ at $3.14. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 15¢ to average $2.82, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 84¢ to average $3.31. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 47¢ to average $2.24. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $1.41 to $19.59, SoCal Citygate declined $2.70 to average $20.44 and Northwest Sumas lost 47¢ to average $18.33. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 21¢ to $2.63 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating an unusually small 71 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Jan. 13 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,831 Bcf, about 0.3% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago draw of 203 Bcf and the five-year average pull of 156 Bcf. Last week, mild temperatures brought heating degree days to 152, sharply below the 194 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Jan. 20 are for a 78 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average of 185 Bcf and a year-ago decrease of 217 Bcf.

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso PermianWaha HubTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso BondadOneokTransco Zone 4Florida Zone 3Tetco WLATenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%El Paso PermianWaha HubTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso BondadOneokTransco Zone 4Florida Zone 3Tetco WLATenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin
Note: Jan 18' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (6), down (74).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 18, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 19, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 18, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.544.555.5Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 17 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 18 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 17 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
232445395402384397397504411Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
11 Jan 2312 Jan 2313 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 2317 Jan 23400060008000100001200014000160001800011 Jan 2312 Jan 2313 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 2317 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)500600700800900100011001200130014001500 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
22928135332729226125528012January13January14January15January16January17January18January19January05010015020025030035012January13January14January15January16January17January18January19JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 8°
Boston 14°
Washington 12°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 9°
Los Angeles -8°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 9°
Denver -8°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 17°
Southeast US
New York 12°
Orlando 8°
Boston 14°
Washington 12°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville 17°
Minneapolis 9°
Los Angeles -8°
Las Vegas -9°
Detroit 9°
Denver -8°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 17°

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