January 17, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures climbed 16.7¢ Tuesday to $3.586 per million Btu, recovering from 18-month lows reached last week on the heels of a historic January storage build — the only one on record. "With unusually tepid temperatures ... dominating most of the country over the course of the holiday weekend and into the current week, storage continues to look undoubtedly bearish for the time being," Gelber & Associates analyst said. "Because of the looseness of the underlying supply/demand fundamentals, for Nymex gas futures to see continued upside traction it will then take back-to-back weeks of persistently below-normal temperatures to notably reduce gas stocks before the end of the season." Weather models suggest gas-weighted degree days could return to a seasonally normal level by Jan. 20 and turn "much more bullish by the last week of the month," the analysts said. "Longer-range forecasts suggest this pattern may linger into mid-February."

The 12-month strip climbed 5.2¢ to $3.676; the 2024 strip rose 2¢ to $4.028 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwes E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $2.46 to $1.85. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that remained at $3.43. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down $1.03 to average $2.97, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $3.23 to average $4.15. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose $4.83 to average $1.78. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $5.18 to $20.99, SoCal Citygate advanced $2.49 to average $23.14 and Northwest Sumas gained $5.54 to average $18.80. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 22¢ to $2.84 (Daily cash prices).

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Natural gas production from seven major US shale plays is expected to rise by 466 million cubic feet per day in February to 96.66 billion cubic feet per day, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday in its Drilling Productivity Report. The Haynesville Shale will see the biggest monthly gain at 145 MMcf/d, the EIA said, to 16.59 Bcf/d. Associated gas from the Permian Basin is seen increasing 109 MMcf/d to 21.72 Bcf/d, while Appalachia’s output is expected to jump 93 MMcf/d to 35.37 Bcf/d. The agency foresees smaller gains in the Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Bakken and Anadarko basins. The projections, which are based on the number of drilling rigs at work and their productivity, predicts US shale oil output will rise by about 76,000 barrels per day from the seven basins to average about 9.375 million b/d in February.


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Tallgrass Energy said Tuesday it completed the acquisition of the Ruby Pipeline announced in December. The deal adds 683 miles of 42-inch pipe stretching from the Opal Hub in Wyoming to Malin, Oregon, to Tallgrass' portfolio of assets, enabling Tallgrass to serve West Coast markets. Tallgrass said the deal enables it to provide access to "nearly every major demand center" in the US "as well as supply basin optionality," giving it "an expanded platform" to serve markets looking for certified responsibly sourced gas and renewable natural gas — areas Tallgrass has been seeking to develop.

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Price notice:

Due to revisions by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing for the Jan. 12, 2023 trade day as follows:

At Tetco M1, there is no published price.

At Emerson, the revised pricing is: Low: $3.32; High: $3.43; Average: $3.39; Volume: 39,200; Deals: 11

At TGT Zone 1, the revised pricing is: Low: $3.26; High: $3.29; Average: $3.27; Volume: 45,900; Deals: 8.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadWaha HubTransco Z6 - NYTenn Gas Zone 6Transco Zone 5Iroquois Zone 2Algonquin-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso San JuanTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso BondadWaha HubTransco Z6 - NYTenn Gas Zone 6Transco Zone 5Iroquois Zone 2Algonquin
Note: Jan 17' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (51), down (25).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 17, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 18, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 17, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.544.555.5Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 13 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 17 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 13 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
265232445395402384397397504Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
10 Jan 2311 Jan 2312 Jan 2313 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 23400060008000100001200014000160001800010 Jan 2311 Jan 2312 Jan 2313 Jan 2314 Jan 2315 Jan 2316 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)600700800900100011001200130014001500 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)50010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000800090001000011000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
27822928135332729226625011January12January13January14January15January16January17January18January05010015020025030035011January12January13January14January15January16January17January18JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 0°
Boston 6°
Washington 10°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 25°
Minneapolis 17°
Los Angeles -9°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 16°
Denver -7°
Austin 17°
Atlanta 17°
Southeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 0°
Boston 6°
Washington 10°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia 5°
Nashville 25°
Minneapolis 17°
Los Angeles -9°
Las Vegas -7°
Detroit 16°
Denver -7°
Austin 17°
Atlanta 17°

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