January 13, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures fell 27.6¢ Friday to $3.419 per million Btu, down 35¢ on the week to an 18-month low for the prompt-month contract. Current prices are sharply below the latest US government forecasts that have Henry Hub spot prices averaging $4.90/MMBtu in 2023. Analysts say more certainty about the arrival of colder weather later this month and into February, as well as the timely resumption of exports via Freeport LNG, are catalysts that could close that gap. But unconfirmed rumors about yet another delay at Freeport and disagreement among major weather models is keeping a lid on prices.

The 12-month strip dropped 14.1¢ to $3.624; the 2024 strip fell 5.1¢ to $4.008 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Waha Hub saw the most significant cash price move of the day, falling $5.12 to $-3.05. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 8¢ at $3.43. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 85¢ to average $4.00, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $3.71 to average $7.38. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $5.53 to $15.81, SoCal Citygate declined $4.07 to average $20.65 and Northwest Sumas lost 74¢ to average $13.26. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 26¢ to $2.62 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US rig count climbed three to 775 last week, up 174 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs fell two to 150, up 41 from a year ago, while oil rigs climbed five to 623, up 131 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 63 rigs to 356, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 23 to 73. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 16 at 68 (Rig counts).

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2Transco Z6 - NYTransco Z6 - Non-NYEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha Hub-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%AlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6Iroquois Zone 2Transco Z6 - NYTransco Z6 - Non-NYEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadTranswes E of ThoreauEl Paso PermianWaha Hub
Note: Jan 13' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (8), down (68).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 13, 2023 / Flow Dates: Jan. 14-17, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 13, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.544.555.566.5Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 12 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 238090100110120130140150160170 6 Jan 2313 Jan 2320 Jan 2327 Jan 23 3 Feb 2310 Feb 2317 Feb 2324 Feb 23 3 Mar 2310 Mar 2317 Mar 2324 Mar 2331 Mar 23 7 Apr 2314 Apr 2321 Apr 2328 Apr 23 5 May 2312 May 2319 May 2326 May 23 2 Jun 23 9 Jun 2316 Jun 2323 Jun 2330 Jun 23 7 Jul 2314 Jul 2321 Jul 2328 Jul 23 4 Aug 2311 Aug 2318 Aug 2325 Aug 23 1 Sep 23 8 Sep 2315 Sep 2322 Sep 2329 Sep 23 6 Oct 2313 Oct 2320 Oct 2327 Oct 23 3 Nov 2310 Nov 2317 Nov 2324 Nov 23 1 Dec 23 8 Dec 2315 Dec 2322 Dec 2329 Dec 23202120222023
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Jan 13 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 13 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 12 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
49630822585265232445395402Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 2310 Jan 2311 Jan 2312 Jan 234000600080001000012000140001600018000 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 2310 Jan 2311 Jan 2312 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)600700800900100011001200130014001500 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
3013102862742782292763457 January8 January9 January10January11January12January13January14January0501001502002503003507 January8 January9 January10January11January12January13January14JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 9°
Orlando -5°
Boston 16°
Washington 12°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 2°
Denver -2°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York 9°
Orlando -5°
Boston 16°
Washington 12°
Seattle 6°
Philadelphia 13°
Nashville -1°
Minneapolis -4°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 2°
Denver -2°
Austin 3°
Atlanta 1°

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