January 12, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

Despite an unusual mid-winter build in working gas stockpiles, February gas futures climbed 2.4¢ Thursday to $3.695 per million Btu. Strong output from renewables and mild weather brought about the reported storage injection that defied consensus estimates of a 13 Bcf draw. It is also the only weekly January build on record. That the February contract surged as high as $3.946 in the wake of the report is a sign that the surprise injection had already been priced in. Lending support to prices are “bargain seekers buying the dip in prices” and a colder outlook starting late in the month and stretching into February, Gelber & Associates analysts said. But confirmation of rumors of yet another delay in Freeport LNG’s restart could undermine that weather outlook.

The 12-month strip edged 1.8¢ higher to $3.765/MMBtu; the 2024 strip climbed 4.6¢ to $4.059/MMBtu (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $5.80 to $14.50. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 12¢ at $3.52. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 37¢ to average $3.15, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 32¢ to average $3.67. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 44¢ to average $2.07. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $5.87 to $21.34, SoCal Citygate advanced $6.66 to average $24.72 and Northwest Sumas gained $4.09 to average $14.00. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 17¢ to $2.88 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a rare 11 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended Jan. 6, increasing net working gas inventories to 2,902 Bcf. The build compares with a year-ago and five-year average draw of 157 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average fell to 40 Bcf, or 1.4%. The deficit to last year declined to 140 Bcf, or 4.6%. Next week's data is expected to show a 75 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 156 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

The largest grid operator in the US is investigating why some of its generators were unable to deliver power during a late December winter storm. On Dec. 23, 2022, PJM, which operates an electric transmission grid spanning 13 states and the District of Columbia serving 65 million customers, appealed for electricity conservation as temperatures plummeted. According to Reuters, PJM officials said Thursday that more than 90% of the generators that fell short when called on to supply power gave less than an hour's notice of problems, and that about 70% of the units that fell short were gas-fired generators that have their fuel piped from the Appalachian Basin. "There was just not enough upstream supply to match the demand," PJM fuel supply analyst Brian Fitzpatrick said. Analysts estimate that at least 100 billion cubic feet of gas production was shut in during the course of Winter Storm Elliott.

* * *

Price Notice:

Due to a revision by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing as follows:

For trade day Jan. 6, 2023 at Iroquois, the revised pricing is: Low: $3.60; High: $3.75; Average: $3.65; Volume: 80,844; Deals: 10.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadTransco Zone 5NW Sumas   Westcoast Station 2Transwes E of Thoreau-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Transwestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanEl Paso BondadTransco Zone 5NW Sumas   Westcoast Station 2Transwes E of Thoreau
Note: Jan 12' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (73), down (2).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 12, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 13, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 12, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.544.555.566.5Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 11 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Jan 12, '23
61%71%63%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 12 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 11 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
4549630822585265232445395Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 2310 Jan 2311 Jan 234000600080001000012000140001600018000 5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 2310 Jan 2311 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 Jan(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan11 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2973013102862742782302646 January7 January8 January9 January10January11January12January13January0501001502002503003506 January7 January8 January9 January10January11January12January13JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -2°
Boston 2°
Washington 7°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 7°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 8°
Denver 1°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 14°
Southeast US
New York 7°
Orlando -2°
Boston 2°
Washington 7°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 12°
Minneapolis 7°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 8°
Denver 1°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 14°

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