January 11, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures edged 3.2¢ higher Wednesday to $3.671 per million Btu. According to the latest run of major weather models, there's the potential for widespread below-average temperatures to return to the Lower 48 late in the month. That would ordinarily give strength to bulls, but the market must first contend with a pair of well below-normal withdrawals from storage over the next couple of weeks.

The 12-month strip climbed 3.7¢ to $3.748; the 2024 strip rose 2.2¢ to $4.013 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwes E of Thoreau saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $1.07 to $2.56. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 10¢ at $3.39. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 57¢ to average $2.79, while Boston-area Algonquin declined $3.1 to average $3.35. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 19¢ to average $1.63. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $2.18 to $15.47, SoCal Citygate declined $2.4 to average $18.06 and Northwest Sumas lost 9¢ to average $9.91. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 2¢ to $2.71 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Analysts are anticipating an unusually small 17 billion cubic foot withdrawal from storage for the week ended Jan. 6 when the Energy Information Administration reports data Thursday. That would lower inventories to 2,874 Bcf, about 2.3% below the five-year average. The Reuters poll consensus compares with the year-ago and five-year average draw of 157 Bcf. Last week, temperatures brought heating degree days to 125, sharply below the 191 HDD 30-year average for the period, Reuters reports. Models for the week ending Jan. 13 are for a 75 Bcf withdrawal. That compares with a five-year average withdrawal of 156 Bcf and year-ago decrease of 203 Bcf.

* * *

A trio of Appalachian natural gas companies announced Wednesday the launch of the Appalachian Methane Initiative (AMI), an industry group that will, at a basin-wide level, monitor and work to reduce the industry's methane emissions. Producers EQT Corp. and Chesapeake Energy and regional transmission and storage operator Equitrans Midstream Corp. are the coalition’s founding members. As gas producers seek to establish a foothold in a globalizing gas market, the initiative augments companywide efforts by producers to certify their output as responsibly sourced gas (RSG) as well as efforts toward lowering methane intensity of upstream and midstream operations in general. “Applying a basin-wide, sector-agnostic approach to methane monitoring will not only allow accountability for methane emissions from all emitters; we believe it will eliminate any doubt – whether from policy-makers, customers, or the general public — that Appalachian natural gas is the cleanest form of traditional energy in the world,” EQT CEO Toby Rice said. “It is imperative that we recognize Appalachian natural gas for what it is, namely a means of reducing global emissions.” This year, AMI will develop and implement a pilot monitoring program “to cover select areas of interest within the major operating footprints of the Appalachian Basin.” The coalition’s goal is to roll out a basin-wide monitoring program in 2024.

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The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) said Wednesday it will retire its Cumberland Fossil coal plant and build a 1,450-megawatt combined-cycle natural gas facility in its place by 2026. The gas plant will reduce carbon emissions from the Cumberland site by 60%, the federal utility said. The decision comes after a two-year, often contentious review process during which environmental groups and some public officials pushed TVA to consider renewable alternatives. “Replacing retired generation with a natural gas plant is the best overall solution because it’s the only mature technology available today that can provide firm, dispatchable power by 2026,” meaning TVA can turn it on and off depending on system power requirements, said President and CEO Jeff Lyash. “In addition, natural gas supports continued reduction of carbon emissions by enabling the integration of renewables, such as solar and battery storage, all while maintaining system reliability.” The two-unit coal plant will retire in two stages, with one unit closing by the end of 2026 and the second by the end of 2028.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanEl Paso PermianWaha HubTetco M3Transco Z6 - NYIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Transwes E of ThoreauEl Paso BondadEl Paso San JuanEl Paso PermianWaha HubTetco M3Transco Z6 - NYIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6Algonquin
Note: Jan 11' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (32), down (44).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 11, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 12, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 11, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.544.555.566.5Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 10 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 11 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 10 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
654549630822585265232445Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10Jan 11NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
4 Jan 23 5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 2310 Jan 2340006000800010000120001400016000 4 Jan 23 5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 2310 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)15002000250030003500400045005000 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 Jan(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)80010001200140016001800200022002400 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan10 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2532973013102862742852305 January6 January7 January8 January9 January10January11January12January0501001502002503003505 January6 January7 January8 January9 January10January11January12JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 3°
Orlando -5°
Boston -1°
Washington 0°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 10°
Minneapolis 11°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -2°
Detroit 3°
Denver 3°
Austin 19°
Atlanta 3°
Southeast US
New York 3°
Orlando -5°
Boston -1°
Washington 0°
Seattle 1°
Philadelphia 1°
Nashville 10°
Minneapolis 11°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -2°
Detroit 3°
Denver 3°
Austin 19°
Atlanta 3°

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