January 10, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures dropped 27.1¢ Tuesday to $3.639 per million Btu, more than than offsetting the prior session’s 20¢ gain. “Monday’s bullish trading action appeared to be more tied to bargain seekers who were stepping into significantly oversold market conditions rather than any major fundamental changes,” Gelber & Associates analysts said Tuesday. “The near-term temperature outlook continues to be about as bearish as it can get for mid-January, with daily gas storage withdrawals that are slated to be bearish versus the five-year average for about two weeks.” Looking further ahead, cold temperatures could push prices back above $5/MMBtu, “but it will require lots of Arctic air to dominate the nation for multiple weeks,” they added.

The 12-month strip fell 21.9¢ to $3.639; the 2024 strip declined 10.3¢ to $3.991 (Futures contracts).

* * *

NW Rockies saw the most significant price move of the day, rising $6.72 to $17.00. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 36¢ at $3.30. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 64¢ to average $3.36, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 87¢ to average $6.45. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 26¢ to average $1.44. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 24¢ to $17.66, SoCal Citygate declined $1.20 to average $20.46 and Northwest Sumas lost $6.99 to average $10.00. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 19¢ to $2.73 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) is reportedly considering a ban on natural gas stoves, which are used in 35% of American households. Commissioner Richard Trumka told Bloomberg in a recent interview that pollutants created by gas stoves have been linked to childhood asthma and other respiratory ailments, citing a December study in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. The study said gas stoves emit hazardous levels of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particulates. “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned,” said Trumka, who has been pushing for a proposed rulemaking and public comment period on a ban. Other options for the agency, he said, include setting standards for the emissions from the appliances. Trumka’s remarks came after a group of 18 members of Congress wrote the agency Dec. 21 citing the health hazards of gas stoves as well as the climate impacts. The American Gas Association on Tuesday said the study in question "is not substantiated by sound science." In addition, the utility trade group said "any efforts to ban highly efficient natural gas stoves should raise alarm bells for the 187 million Americans who depend on this essential fuel every day."

* * *

Price notice:

Due to revisions a data provider, Energy Intelligence is revising its daily pricing as follows:

For trade day Jan. 3, 2023 at Oneok, the revised pricing is: Low: $2.80; High: $3.00; Average: $2.81; Volume: 2,100; Deals: 2.

For trade day Jan. 5, 2023 at Trunkline Zone 1A, the revised pricing is: Low: $3.10; High: $3.16; Average: $3.14; Volume: 62,800; Deals: 7.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Mark Davidson

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
NW RockiesPG&E SouthTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanPG&E CitygateEl Paso - South MainlineTransco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Zone 5OneokEl Paso PermianNW Sumas-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%NW RockiesPG&E SouthTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanPG&E CitygateEl Paso - South MainlineTransco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Zone 5OneokEl Paso PermianNW Sumas
Note: Jan 10' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (7), down (76).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 10, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 11, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 10, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)33.544.555.566.57Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 9 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 10 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 9 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
178654549630822585265232Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9Jan 10NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
3 Jan 23 4 Jan 23 5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 23200040006000800010000120001400016000 3 Jan 23 4 Jan 23 5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23 9 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)1500200025003000350040004500500031 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240031 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2082532973013102862722824 January5 January6 January7 January8 January9 January10January11January0501001502002503003504 January5 January6 January7 January8 January9 January10January11JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 5°
Orlando 2°
Boston 4°
Washington 3°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 5°
Minneapolis 11°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas 5°
Detroit 4°
Denver 7°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 1°
Southeast US
New York 5°
Orlando 2°
Boston 4°
Washington 3°
Seattle 3°
Philadelphia 3°
Nashville 5°
Minneapolis 11°
Los Angeles -1°
Las Vegas 5°
Detroit 4°
Denver 7°
Austin 14°
Atlanta 1°

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