January 9, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures recovered 20¢ Monday to settle at $3.91 per million Btu. The short-covering rally follows last week’s decline that left the market both technically and fundamentally oversold, according to analysts. But there appears to be little weather support in the near term to sustain the rally. “A pattern featuring a ridge of high pressure across the eastern two-thirds of the country is poised to remain anchored in place through at least the third week of January, resulting in bearish weekly gas storage inventory reports, particularly when compared to both the five-year average and 2022 average,” Gelber & Associates analysts said. However, they pointed to long range weather forecast models “hinting at another potentially frigid weather pattern transition to occur by late January into February,” which could bring about another round of 200-plus billion cubic foot withdrawals.

The 12-month strip climbed 15.9¢ to $3.93; the 2024 strip went up 13.3¢ to $4.094 (Futures contracts).


* * *

Algonquin saw the most significant cash price move of the day, rising $2.77 to $7.31. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were up 22¢ at $3.65. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 50¢ to average $4.00, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced $2.76 to average $7.31. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub rose 19¢ to average $1.71. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose $1.67 to $17.90, SoCal Citygate advanced $2.35 to average $21.66 and Northwest Sumas gained $1.36 to average $16.99. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco rose 19¢ to $2.93 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine on Friday signed a bill requiring state agencies to grant oil and gas leases on state-owned lands as long as they meet certain conditions. The bill amended state law to say "a state agency shall lease, in good faith, a formation within a parcel of land that is owned or controlled by the state agency for the exploration for and development and production of oil or natural gas." Critics of the bill contend that the language will act as a rubber stamp of approval for oil and gas companies seeking to drill horizontally to access resources beneath state-owned land. But those that supported the legislation said Ohio law still requires potential leaseholders to file an application with the state, and deny it will lead to more surface access on public land to the resources lying beneath. The bill also defines "green energy" to include "energy generated by using natural gas as a resource," but precludes natural gas from receiving renewable energy credits unless it "has been produced from biologically derived methane gas."
Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6El Paso San JuanEl Paso Permian    NW Rockies-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%AlgonquinIroquois Zone 2Tenn Gas Zone 6El Paso San JuanEl Paso Permian    NW Rockies
Note: Jan 9' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (82), down (1).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 9, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 10, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 9, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)3.544.555.566.5Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 6 '23


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 9 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 6 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
248178654549630822585265Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600700800900Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6Jan 7Jan 8Jan 9NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
2 Jan 23 3 Jan 23 4 Jan 23 5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23200040006000800010000120001400016000 2 Jan 23 3 Jan 23 4 Jan 23 5 Jan 23 6 Jan 23 7 Jan 23 8 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000(MMcf/d)70080090010001100120013001400150031 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan(MW)020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000(MMcf/d)10001500200025003000350040004500500030 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000(MMcf/d)8001000120014001600180020002200240030 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
2272082532973013102952753 January4 January5 January6 January7 January8 January9 January10 January0501001502002503003503 January4 January5 January6 January7 January8 January9 January10 JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 3°
Boston 3°
Washington 3°
Seattle 5°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 1°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 4°
Denver 1°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 0°
Southeast US
New York 6°
Orlando 3°
Boston 3°
Washington 3°
Seattle 5°
Philadelphia 6°
Nashville 1°
Minneapolis 5°
Los Angeles 0°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 4°
Denver 1°
Austin 2°
Atlanta 0°

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