January 6, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures eased 1¢ Friday to $3.71 per million Btu for a one-week drop of 76.5¢. The adoption of a $3 handle signals the threat of a cold winter — although many calendar days remain — no longer hangs over the market, leaving observers to ponder a bottom. That will be governed by the summer supply outlook, Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart told Energy Intelligence Friday. "Although our balances don't imply storage breaching capacity this year ... consensus views are of an even better supplied market, which is what has pushed prices below $4/MMBtu," she said. "This is an important threshold given that prices below it start to create the incentive for utilities to burn more gas and less PRB coal." The timing of Freeport LNG's restart is another important factor to watch. "Another delay beyond January would likely pressure US natural gas prices further lower," she said.

The 12-month strip fell 3.3¢ to $3.681; the 2024 strip slipped 1.3¢ to $3.961 (Futures contracts).

* * *

El Paso Bondad saw the most significant cash price move of the day, rising $2.11 to $6.13. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 34¢ at $3.43. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went up 33¢ to average $3.50, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 48¢ to average $4.55. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 17¢ to average $1.52. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal rose 79¢ to $16.22, SoCal Citygate advanced 62¢ to average $19.31 and Northwest Sumas gained $2.14 to average $15.63. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 10¢ to $2.74 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US rig count fell seven to 772 last week, up 184 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reported. Gas-directed rigs fell four to 152, up 45 from a year ago, while oil rigs dropped three to 618, up 137 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 61 rigs to 353, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 27 to 71. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 20 at 69 (Rig counts).

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
El Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanNW SumasTransco Z6 - Non-NYANR SETenn 500 So LA Z1Florida Zone 3El Paso PermianTranswes E of Thoreau-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%El Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanEl Paso San JuanNW SumasTransco Z6 - Non-NYANR SETenn 500 So LA Z1Florida Zone 3El Paso PermianTranswes E of Thoreau
Note: Jan 6' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (30), down (45).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 6, 2023 / Flow Dates: Jan. 7-9, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmissionCo.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmissionLtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 6, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)3.544.555.56Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 5 '23

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160170 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Jan 6 '23. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 6 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 5 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
353304286248178654549630Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6(MMcf/d)0100200300400500600Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5Jan 6NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
30 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 23 3 Jan 23 4 Jan 23 5 Jan 2320004000600080001000012000140001600030 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 23 3 Jan 23 4 Jan 23 5 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500160028 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000550027 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)60080010001200140016001800200022002400260027 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
21922425622720825329831731December1 January2 January3 January4 January5 January6 January7 January05010015020025030035031December1 January2 January3 January4 January5 January6 January7 JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 11°
Orlando 4°
Boston 8°
Washington 11°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 12°
Nashville 8°
Minneapolis -5°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -2°
Detroit 9°
Denver -1°
Austin 8°
Atlanta 0°
Southeast US
New York 11°
Orlando 4°
Boston 8°
Washington 11°
Seattle 4°
Philadelphia 12°
Nashville 8°
Minneapolis -5°
Los Angeles -6°
Las Vegas -2°
Detroit 9°
Denver -1°
Austin 8°
Atlanta 0°

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