January 5, 2023

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Gas Markets

Market Watch

February gas futures fell 45.2¢ Thursday to $3.72 per million Btu, setting a one-year low for the prompt-month contract. The decline came in the face of the largest withdrawal from working gas storage thus far this season. But traders had already priced in the possibility of consecutive 200-plus Bcf weekly withdrawals. Instead, unseasonably mild temperatures dominated market sentiment. Gelber & Associates analysts said weather forecasts “hint at the potential for a pattern reversal in temperatures to produce an impressively cold period later this month.” But with forecast confidence “on the lower end of the spectrum … the outlook won’t likely be taken seriously until greater clarity is available.”

The 12-month strip fell 29.2¢ to $3.804; the 2024 strip dropped 19.7¢ to $3.973 (Futures contracts).

* * *

Transwestern Pipeline, San Juan saw the most significant price move of the day, falling $2.11 to $4.01. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 1¢ at $3.77. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 14¢ to average $3.17, while Boston-area Algonquin advanced 97¢ to average $5.03. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub remained at $1.69. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell $1.77 to $15.43, SoCal Citygate declined $1.48 to average $18.69 and Northwest Sumas gained $2.23 to average $13.49. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 20¢ to $2.84 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The US Energy Information Administration reported a 221 Bcf storage draw for the week ended Dec. 30, decreasing net working gas inventories to 2,891 Bcf. The pull compares with a five-year average draw of 98 Bcf and a year-ago pull of 46 Bcf. The deficit to the five-year average climbed to 208 Bcf, or 6.7%. The deficit to last year reached 308 Bcf, or 9.6%. Next week's data is expected to show a 31 Bcf withdrawal versus a five-year average of 151 Bcf (Storage).

* * *

Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said Thursday he expects production growth and limited pipeline capacity will depress Permian Basin natural gas prices for the next decade. The more than 4 Bcf/d of incremental takeaway capacity expected to enter service through late 2024 won't be enough to keep pace with the more than 8.6 Bcf/d of gas production growth he expects. Over the New Year's holiday weekend, the Waha Hub price averaged $-3.71, a $7.22 discount to Henry Hub. "We're going to need a gas pipeline, at least about every 18 months to two years going forward," he told the audience at the Goldman Sachs Energy Conference. "I think the Waha problem is going to continue off and on for the next decade. ... You're going to see it do exactly what it's doing."

Everett Wheeler, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinNW SumasIroquois Zone 2Transco Station 45El Paso PermianEl Paso San JuanWestcoast Station 2El Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San Juan-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Tenn Gas Zone 6AlgonquinNW SumasIroquois Zone 2Transco Station 45El Paso PermianEl Paso San JuanWestcoast Station 2El Paso BondadTranswestern Pipeline, San Juan
Note: Jan 5' 23 versus prior day price: points moving up (5), down (69).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jan. 5, 2023 / Flow Date: Jan. 6, 2023
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC051015202530354045Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipeline Company,LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jan 5, '23
Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24($/MMBtu)3.544.555.56Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23Aug'23Sep'23Oct'23Nov'23Dec'23Jan'24CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jan 4 '23

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Jan 5, '23
61%71%63%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jan 5 '23

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jan 4 '23

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
377353304286248178654549Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5(MMcf/d)050100150200250300350400450Dec 28Dec 29Dec 30Dec 31Jan 1Jan 2Jan 3Jan 4Jan 5NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
29 Dec 2230 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 23 3 Jan 23 4 Jan 2320004000600080001000012000140001600029 Dec 2230 Dec 2231 Dec 22 1 Jan 23 2 Jan 23 3 Jan 23 4 Jan 23Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan(MW)01000200030004000500060007000(MMcf/d)700800900100011001200130014001500160027 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 JanCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)100015002000250030003500400045005000550026 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 JanWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
26 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000100001100012000(MMcf/d)60080010001200140016001800200022002400260026 Dec27 Dec28 Dec29 Dec30 Dec31 Dec 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 JanPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
23721922425622720825630230December31December1 January2 January3 January4 January5 January6 January05010015020025030035030December31December1 January2 January3 January4 January5 January6 JanuaryCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York 11°
Orlando 15°
Boston 9°
Washington 21°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 22°
Nashville 6°
Minneapolis 3°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 11°
Denver -8°
Austin 0°
Atlanta 8°
Southeast US
New York 11°
Orlando 15°
Boston 9°
Washington 21°
Seattle 7°
Philadelphia 22°
Nashville 6°
Minneapolis 3°
Los Angeles 1°
Las Vegas 1°
Detroit 11°
Denver -8°
Austin 0°
Atlanta 8°

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